19 September 2014

Revised December 24, 2004


I give my heartfelt thanks to Ellis Goldberg for obtaining and abstracting the data from the Lucas County canvass records, and to Coleen Christensen for producing the spreadsheets, which made it possible for me to write this report in a timely manner.



The very first thing we all noticed when examining the precinct canvass records for Lucas County was the distribution of turnout.  The range is striking, and turnout is distinctly higher in the Bush precincts than in the Kerry precincts.  In some precincts the reported turnout is too high to be credible.


PRECINCTS WITH HIGHEST TURNOUT, TOLEDO SUBURBS

 

Precinct                 Turnout  Bush  Kerry

 

MONCLOVA TOWNSHIP 10      92.67    217    161

MONCLOVA TOWNSHIP 11      92.46    424    298

SYLVANIA TOWNSHIP J       91.97     84     40

OREGON 16                 89.46    186    210

MAUMEE 18                 89.44    205    190

MONCLOVA TOWNSHIP 7       87.78    285    151

MONCLOVA TOWNSHIP 9       87.58    195     78

RICHFIELD TOWNSHIP 2      86.76    105     83

SYLVANIA TOWNSHIP K       86.74    338    177

SYLVANIA TOWNSHIP I       86.48    270    184

SPRINGFIELD TOWNSHIP 25   86.17    230    116

OREGON 5                  86.09    382    390

MONCLOVA TOWNSHIP 5       85.96    365    181

MAUMEE 12                 85.48    197    262

WATERVILLE TOWNSHIP 7     85.36    328    189

OREGON 15                 85.23    189    287

YLVANIA CITY 18           85.05    434    214

SPRINGFIELD TOWNSHIP 9    84.98    297    147

SYLVANIA CITY 10          84.87    254    157

SYLVANIA CITY 21          84.87    516    295

SYLVANIA TOWNSHIP H       84.85    211    122

WATERVILLE TOWNSHIP 3     84.56    356    304

WATERVILLE TOWNSHIP 6     84.48    293    183

WATERVILLE TOWNSHIP 9     84.31    542    260

SYLVANIA TOWNSHIP CC      84.21    262    194

 

Turnout above 90% is almost unheard of.  I have examined the canvass records in eight other Ohio counties and have seen reported turnout above 90% only in two precincts in Miami County where, in my professional opinion, the election was hacked.  Miami and Lucas counties are also the only two counties whose records I have examined that used optical scanning machines, as confirmed by the map posted at verifiedvoting.org/verifier/map.php?&topic_string=5std&state=Ohio



I also noticed that among the suburban precincts with the highest reported turnout, 4 of the top 7 are in one township, 7 of the top 10 are in two townships, and 14 of the top 25 are in three townships.  The Lucas County Board of Elections did not provide turnout data and vote totals at the town or ward level, so I have calculated them from the precinct data:


REPORTED VOTER TURNOUT IN TOLEDO SUBURBS

 

                  Registered   Votes   Percent

City/Township         Voters  Counted  Turnout  Bush  Kerry

 

RICHFIELD TOWNSHIP      1124     949    84.43    523    410

MONCLOVA TOWNSHIP       7024    5863    83.47   3754   2073

WATERVILLE TOWNSHIP     7325    5980    81.64   3657   2255

OTTAWA HILLS VILLAGE    3560    2858    80.28   1656   1180

SYLVANIA TOWNSHIP      19555   15691    80.24   8924   6654

MAUMEE                 10820    8632    79.78   4228   4308

PROVIDENCE TOWNSHIP     2413    1921    79.61   1092    810

SYLVANIA CITY          13361   10586    79.23   6029   4466

OREGON                 13353   10495    78.60   4258   6121

JERUSALEM TOWNSHIP      2121    1664    78.45    713    938

WASHINGTON TOWNSHIP     2235    1699    76.02    673   1020

HARDING TOWNSHIP         488     370    75.82    200    168

SWANTON TOWNSHIP        2084    1573    75.48    740    821

SPRINGFIELD TOWNSHIP   17407   12592    72.34   6891   5601

SPENCER TOWNSHIP        1209     834    68.98    312    508

HARBOR VIEW VILLAGE       69      36    52.17     14     22

 

TOTAL                 104148   81743    78.49  43664  37355

These are very high turnout rates for entire cities, villages and towns.  Note that Bush won 7 of the 9 largest, and 6 of those are near the top of the list.  The real story, however, is in Toledo.




TOLEDO PRECINCTS WITH LOWEST REPORTED TURNOUT

 

Precinct               Turnout   Bush   Kerry

 

TOLEDO 8-I              39.18    100     328

TOLEDO 18-C             44.01     28     280

TOLEDO 2-D              46.18     50     388

TOLEDO 2-A              47.40     68     275

TOLEDO 8-J              47.50     48     315

TOLEDO 19-C             49.07    117     404

TOLEDO 24-B             49.41    142     191

TOLEDO 2-I              49.91     28     237

TOLEDO 19-D             50.35     45     167

TOLEDO 17-I             50.63     78     283

TOLEDO 2-H              51.47     57     335

TOLEDO 2-G              51.63     59     346

TOLEDO 2-F              52.24     28     294

TOLEDO 18-B             52.32     47     196

TOLEDO 17-C             52.53     34     171

TOLEDO 15-J             52.61     80     271

TOLEDO 4-N              52.69     52     396

TOLEDO 7-B              52.85     72     367

TOLEDO 17-J             53.15    110     343

TOLEDO 17-F             53.46    111     475

TOLEDO 2-C              53.47     70     236

TOLEDO 15-A             53.92     84     209

TOLEDO 8-M              53.98     31     125

TOLEDO 17-H             54.22     89     286

TOLEDO 10-A             54.41     52     424

TOLEDO 6-K              54.48     20     124

TOLEDO 19-B             54.57    101     251

TOLEDO 8-F              54.65     11     222

TOLEDO 19-A             54.89     77     294

TOLEDO 24-D             55.12    206     283

TOLEDO 17-D             55.14     48     145

TOLEDO 14-F             55.42      8     216

TOLEDO 24-E             55.73    112     191

TOLEDO 19-F             55.82     91     230

TOLEDO 18-A             56.22     75     266

TOLEDO 19-E             56.25     55     188

TOLEDO 8-H              56.47     17     221

TOLEDO 6-M              56.51     77     252

TOLEDO 8-C              56.57      9     417

TOLEDO 12-E             56.81    144     291

TOLEDO 17-G             56.87    103     370

TOLEDO 19-H             56.91     75     237

TOLEDO 3-I              57.07     86     253

TOLEDO 4-E              57.14     37     254

TOLEDO 8-K              57.32     33     611

TOLEDO 20-A             57.48     62     292

TOLEDO 14-E             57.77     11     411

TOLEDO 8-L              58.02     20     515

TOLEDO 17-E             58.02     23      70

TOLEDO 8-G              58.29     13     320

TOLEDO 18-G             58.67     80     237

TOLEDO 4-H              58.75     24     278

TOLEDO 13-E             58.78     13     401

TOLEDO 6-F              58.81    167     242

TOLEDO 4-C              59.23     74     380

TOLEDO 18-I             59.56     58     261

TOLEDO 2-B              59.64     60     430

TOLEDO 10-G             59.68      9     289

TOLEDO 19-G             59.70    135     340

TOLEDO 20-I             59.78     34     127

TOLEDO 13-G             59.83     18     259

TOLEDO 13-A             59.84     11     207

TOLEDO 3-C              59.94     82     308

Altogether there were 63 precincts in Toledo with less than 60% reported turnout.  All of them were won overwhelmingly by John Kerry.  The vote in the aggregate was 19,353 to 4,247, more than 4.5 to 1.  But look at the distribution, or more precisely, the concentration.  Of the 8 precincts with less than 50% reported turnout, 4 are located in 2 wards.  Of the 29 precincts with less than 55% reported turnout, 20 are located in 4 wards, and 24 are located in 6 wards.  Of the 63 precincts with less than 60% reported turnout, 34 are located in 4 wards, 39 are located in 5 wards, and 43 are located in 6 wards.




TOLEDO PRECINCTS WITH HIGHEST REPORTED TURNOUT

 

Precinct               Turnout   Bush   Kerry

 

TOLEDO 22-M             88.80    222     227

TOLEDO 22-G             88.20    204     217

TOLEDO 16-D             87.84    137     150

TOLEDO 7-D              86.52    248     193

TOLEDO 22-K             86.27    140     122

TOLEDO 7-M              86.06    198     186

TOLEDO 7-H              86.04    170     199

TOLEDO 7-F              85.69    215     205

TOLEDO 12-N             85.40    243     303

TOLEDO 16-G             85.23    317     203

TOLEDO 7-L              84.86    271     261

TOLEDO 22-E             84.36    169     182

TOLEDO 7-C              84.14    268     165

TOLEDO 13-K             84.01     41     225

TOLEDO 22-F             83.98    163     118

TOLEDO 7-I              83.55    153     159

TOLEDO 7-G              83.45    245     248

TOLEDO 23-N             82.94    202     248

TOLEDO 5-J              82.52    169     318

TOLEDO 22-B             82.28    259     296

TOLEDO 12-M             82.13    281     337

TOLEDO 16-N             82.13    334     315

TOLEDO 7-N              81.82    160     214

TOLEDO 15-L             81.71    193     273

TOLEDO 16-I             81.70    253     169

TOLEDO 5-I              81.66    259     330

TOLEDO 15-K             81.60    161     171

TOLEDO 16-H             81.51    149     139

TOLEDO 3-L              81.34    128     199

TOLEDO 23-O             81.17    217     248

TOLEDO 1-J              81.10    224     391

TOLEDO 3-P              80.89    126     163

TOLEDO 16-A             80.83    193     189

TOLEDO 7-K              80.81    172     202

TOLEDO 21-L             80.78    290     301

TOLEDO 3-E              80.76     90     145

TOLEDO 1-K              80.67    175     251

TOLEDO 23-A             80.67    221     257

TOLEDO 23-Q             80.31    137     215

TOLEDO 16-M             80.30    136     181

TOLEDO 16-B             80.28    201     295

TOLEDO 23-G             80.23    109     168

TOLEDO 1-H              80.22    219     359

TOLEDO 22-D             80.16    138     160

TOLEDO 3-F              80.00    175     251

Altogether there were 45 precincts in Toledo with more than 80% reported turnout, almost unheard of in an urban area.  Of these 45 precincts, 12 were won by Bush, including 8 of the top 15.  The other 33 precincts were won by Kerry.  Most of these precincts were competitive.  The reported vote, in the aggregate, was 10,148 for Kerry, and 8,775 for Bush.  But once again, look at the concentration.  All 10 of the precincts with more than 85% reported turnout are located in 4 wards.  Of the 17 precincts with more than 83% reported turnout, 13 are located in 2 wards, and 15 are located in 3 wards.  Of the 45 precincts with more than 80% reported turnout, 25 are located in 3 wards.



REPORTED VOTER TURNOUT IN TOLEDO WARDS, 2004



                   Registered  Votes   Percent

Ward / Township       Voters  Counted  Turnout  Bush  Kerry

 

TOLEDO WARD 16          8941    6964    77.89   3162   3734

TOLEDO WARD 22          7794    6047    77.59   2763   3219

TOLEDO WARD 7           7650    5931    77.53   2764   3110

TOLEDO WARD 21          9141    7066    77.30   3308   3685

TOLEDO WARD 23         10987    8313    75.66   3352   4861

TOLEDO WARD 1           9202    6942    75.44   2434   4419

TOLEDO WARD 5           9405    6948    73.88   2585   4300

TOLEDO WARD 12          9470    6824    72.06   2488   4263

TOLEDO WARD 9           8557    6132    71.66   2185   3877

TOLEDO WARD 3           9682    6926    71.53   2511   4347

TOLEDO WARD 11          7283    5138    70.55   1877   3199

TOLEDO WARD 6           9467    6597    69.68   1165   5376

TOLEDO WARD 15          8270    5740    69.41   1980   3702

TOLEDO WARD 24         10349    6975    67.40   3045   3857

TOLEDO WARD 13          7074    4730    66.86    453   4243

TOLEDO WARD 10          8037    5112    63.61    577   4492

TOLEDO WARD 14          6679    4245    63.56    191   4021

TOLEDO WARD 20          5911    3750    63.44    853   2845

TOLEDO WARD 4           8209    5150    62.74    585   4506

TOLEDO WARD 18          5409    3242    59.94    722   2471

TOLEDO WARD 17          6993    3947    56.44    911   2977

TOLEDO WARD 8           8710    4867    55.88    330   4480

TOLEDO WARD 19          5214    2839    54.45    696   2111

TOLEDO WARD 2           6737    3552    52.72    535   2971

 

TOTAL TOLEDO          195171  133977    68.65  41472  91066

TOTAL SUBURBS         104148   81743    78.49  43664  37355

COUNTY WIDE           299319  215720    72.07  85136 128421

These numbers do not quite match those reported on Election Night, but they are close enough to make the point.  The general pattern speaks for itself.  The more competitive the ward, the higher the reported turnout.  Conversely, the less competitive the ward, the lower the reported turnout.  This pattern cannot be explained by claiming that voters were unenthusiastic about John Kerry, because he did win every ward in Toledo.  In fact, Kerry’s margin of victory was 20.24%, compared to 18.68% for Al Gore.




It is still my opinion that the election in Lucas County was rigged.  We now know that computers were stolen from the Lucas County Democratic headquarters three weeks before Election Day.  Among the data stolen were e-mails discussing campaign strategy, candidates' schedules, financial information, and phone numbers of party members, candidates, donors, and volunteers.  The burglary allowed the thieves to target specific wards and precincts for voter suppression operations, which could explain the low turnout in Democratic precincts.  If turnout had been equal in Toledo and the suburbs, Kerry’s plurality in Lucas County would have been considerably larger.




We also now know that voter turnout in the 2000 presidential election was also much higher in the suburbs than in Toledo.  These data were not available to us until after the first draft of this report was written.  A comparison is presented below:




REPORTED VOTER TURNOUT IN TOLEDO WARDS, 2000



                   Registered  Votes   Percent

Ward / Township       Voters  Counted  Turnout  Bush   Gore

 

TOLEDO WARD 16          8410    5872    69.82   2620   3017

TOLEDO WARD 21          8104    5627    69.43   2515   2901

TOLEDO WARD 7           6954    4802    69.05   2293   2346

TOLEDO WARD 22          6777    4444    65.57   2060   2218

TOLEDO WARD 23         10697    6980    65.25   2821   3905

TOLEDO WARD 1           8904    5677    63.76   1999   3496

TOLEDO WARD 12          8306    5255    63.27   2024   2981

TOLEDO WARD 5           8510    5284    62.09   1889   3199

TOLEDO WARD 9           8483    5096    60.07   1835   3020

TOLEDO WARD 11          7131    4181    58.63   1521   2485

TOLEDO WARD 3          10568    6116    57.87   2246   3668

TOLEDO WARD 15          7852    4427    56.38   1581   2649

TOLEDO WARD 6           8595    4813    56.00    711   3982

TOLEDO WARD 13          6791    3644    53.66    309   3247

TOLEDO WARD 14          6242    3323    53.24    106   3165

TOLEDO WARD 24          9720    5146    52.94   2275   2712

TOLEDO WARD 4           6988    3591    51.39    450   3021

TOLEDO WARD 20          5222    2584    49.48    595   1876

TOLEDO WARD 10          7649    3768    49.26    402   3208

TOLEDO WARD 18          5257    2275    43.28    511   1682

TOLEDO WARD 8           7785    3348    43.01    119   3146

TOLEDO WARD 19          5407    2184    40.39    540   1565

TOLEDO WARD 17          6920    2625    37.93    595   1906

TOLEDO WARD 2           6244    2175    34.83    372   1718

 

TOTAL TOLEDO          183516  103237    56.26  32389  67113

TOTAL SUBURBS          91838   61053    66.48  31529  27546

COUNTY WIDE           275354  164290    59.67  63918  94659

It now becomes obvious that voter suppression in inner-city precincts has been going on for a long time.  The Republicans have it down to an art form, as described in my companion paper, “Another Third Rate Burglary.”