24 November 2014

Revised December 24, 2004

I give my heartfelt thanks to Ellis Goldberg for obtaining and abstracting the data from the Lucas County canvass records, and to Coleen Christensen for producing the spreadsheets, which made it possible for me to write this report in a timely manner.

The very first thing we all noticed when examining the precinct canvass records for Lucas County was the distribution of turnout.  The range is striking, and turnout is distinctly higher in the Bush precincts than in the Kerry precincts.  In some precincts the reported turnout is too high to be credible.

PRECINCTS WITH HIGHEST TURNOUT, TOLEDO SUBURBS
 
Precinct                 Turnout  Bush  Kerry
 
MONCLOVA TOWNSHIP 10      92.67    217    161
MONCLOVA TOWNSHIP 11      92.46    424    298
SYLVANIA TOWNSHIP J       91.97     84     40
OREGON 16                 89.46    186    210
MAUMEE 18                 89.44    205    190
MONCLOVA TOWNSHIP 7       87.78    285    151
MONCLOVA TOWNSHIP 9       87.58    195     78
RICHFIELD TOWNSHIP 2      86.76    105     83
SYLVANIA TOWNSHIP K       86.74    338    177
SYLVANIA TOWNSHIP I       86.48    270    184
SPRINGFIELD TOWNSHIP 25   86.17    230    116
OREGON 5                  86.09    382    390
MONCLOVA TOWNSHIP 5       85.96    365    181
MAUMEE 12                 85.48    197    262
WATERVILLE TOWNSHIP 7     85.36    328    189
OREGON 15                 85.23    189    287
YLVANIA CITY 18           85.05    434    214
SPRINGFIELD TOWNSHIP 9    84.98    297    147
SYLVANIA CITY 10          84.87    254    157
SYLVANIA CITY 21          84.87    516    295
SYLVANIA TOWNSHIP H       84.85    211    122
WATERVILLE TOWNSHIP 3     84.56    356    304
WATERVILLE TOWNSHIP 6     84.48    293    183
WATERVILLE TOWNSHIP 9     84.31    542    260
SYLVANIA TOWNSHIP CC      84.21    262    194
 
Turnout above 90% is almost unheard of.  I have examined the canvass records in eight other Ohio counties and have seen reported turnout above 90% only in two precincts in Miami County where, in my professional opinion, the election was hacked.  Miami and Lucas counties are also the only two counties whose records I have examined that used optical scanning machines, as confirmed by the map posted at verifiedvoting.org/verifier/map.php?&topic_string=5std&state=Ohio

I also noticed that among the suburban precincts with the highest reported turnout, 4 of the top 7 are in one township, 7 of the top 10 are in two townships, and 14 of the top 25 are in three townships.  The Lucas County Board of Elections did not provide turnout data and vote totals at the town or ward level, so I have calculated them from the precinct data:

REPORTED VOTER TURNOUT IN TOLEDO SUBURBS
 
                  Registered   Votes   Percent
City/Township         Voters  Counted  Turnout  Bush  Kerry
 
RICHFIELD TOWNSHIP      1124     949    84.43    523    410
MONCLOVA TOWNSHIP       7024    5863    83.47   3754   2073
WATERVILLE TOWNSHIP     7325    5980    81.64   3657   2255
OTTAWA HILLS VILLAGE    3560    2858    80.28   1656   1180
SYLVANIA TOWNSHIP      19555   15691    80.24   8924   6654
MAUMEE                 10820    8632    79.78   4228   4308
PROVIDENCE TOWNSHIP     2413    1921    79.61   1092    810
SYLVANIA CITY          13361   10586    79.23   6029   4466
OREGON                 13353   10495    78.60   4258   6121
JERUSALEM TOWNSHIP      2121    1664    78.45    713    938
WASHINGTON TOWNSHIP     2235    1699    76.02    673   1020
HARDING TOWNSHIP         488     370    75.82    200    168
SWANTON TOWNSHIP        2084    1573    75.48    740    821
SPRINGFIELD TOWNSHIP   17407   12592    72.34   6891   5601
SPENCER TOWNSHIP        1209     834    68.98    312    508
HARBOR VIEW VILLAGE       69      36    52.17     14     22
 
TOTAL                 104148   81743    78.49  43664  37355

These are very high turnout rates for entire cities, villages and towns.  Note that Bush won 7 of the 9 largest, and 6 of those are near the top of the list.  The real story, however, is in Toledo.

TOLEDO PRECINCTS WITH LOWEST REPORTED TURNOUT
 
Precinct               Turnout   Bush   Kerry
 
TOLEDO 8-I              39.18    100     328
TOLEDO 18-C             44.01     28     280
TOLEDO 2-D              46.18     50     388
TOLEDO 2-A              47.40     68     275
TOLEDO 8-J              47.50     48     315
TOLEDO 19-C             49.07    117     404
TOLEDO 24-B             49.41    142     191
TOLEDO 2-I              49.91     28     237
TOLEDO 19-D             50.35     45     167
TOLEDO 17-I             50.63     78     283
TOLEDO 2-H              51.47     57     335
TOLEDO 2-G              51.63     59     346
TOLEDO 2-F              52.24     28     294
TOLEDO 18-B             52.32     47     196
TOLEDO 17-C             52.53     34     171
TOLEDO 15-J             52.61     80     271
TOLEDO 4-N              52.69     52     396
TOLEDO 7-B              52.85     72     367
TOLEDO 17-J             53.15    110     343
TOLEDO 17-F             53.46    111     475
TOLEDO 2-C              53.47     70     236
TOLEDO 15-A             53.92     84     209
TOLEDO 8-M              53.98     31     125
TOLEDO 17-H             54.22     89     286
TOLEDO 10-A             54.41     52     424
TOLEDO 6-K              54.48     20     124
TOLEDO 19-B             54.57    101     251
TOLEDO 8-F              54.65     11     222
TOLEDO 19-A             54.89     77     294
TOLEDO 24-D             55.12    206     283
TOLEDO 17-D             55.14     48     145
TOLEDO 14-F             55.42      8     216
TOLEDO 24-E             55.73    112     191
TOLEDO 19-F             55.82     91     230
TOLEDO 18-A             56.22     75     266
TOLEDO 19-E             56.25     55     188
TOLEDO 8-H              56.47     17     221
TOLEDO 6-M              56.51     77     252
TOLEDO 8-C              56.57      9     417
TOLEDO 12-E             56.81    144     291
TOLEDO 17-G             56.87    103     370
TOLEDO 19-H             56.91     75     237
TOLEDO 3-I              57.07     86     253
TOLEDO 4-E              57.14     37     254
TOLEDO 8-K              57.32     33     611
TOLEDO 20-A             57.48     62     292
TOLEDO 14-E             57.77     11     411
TOLEDO 8-L              58.02     20     515
TOLEDO 17-E             58.02     23      70
TOLEDO 8-G              58.29     13     320
TOLEDO 18-G             58.67     80     237
TOLEDO 4-H              58.75     24     278
TOLEDO 13-E             58.78     13     401
TOLEDO 6-F              58.81    167     242
TOLEDO 4-C              59.23     74     380
TOLEDO 18-I             59.56     58     261
TOLEDO 2-B              59.64     60     430
TOLEDO 10-G             59.68      9     289
TOLEDO 19-G             59.70    135     340
TOLEDO 20-I             59.78     34     127
TOLEDO 13-G             59.83     18     259
TOLEDO 13-A             59.84     11     207
TOLEDO 3-C              59.94     82     308

Altogether there were 63 precincts in Toledo with less than 60% reported turnout.  All of them were won overwhelmingly by John Kerry.  The vote in the aggregate was 19,353 to 4,247, more than 4.5 to 1.  But look at the distribution, or more precisely, the concentration.  Of the 8 precincts with less than 50% reported turnout, 4 are located in 2 wards.  Of the 29 precincts with less than 55% reported turnout, 20 are located in 4 wards, and 24 are located in 6 wards.  Of the 63 precincts with less than 60% reported turnout, 34 are located in 4 wards, 39 are located in 5 wards, and 43 are located in 6 wards.

TOLEDO PRECINCTS WITH HIGHEST REPORTED TURNOUT
 
Precinct               Turnout   Bush   Kerry
 
TOLEDO 22-M             88.80    222     227
TOLEDO 22-G             88.20    204     217
TOLEDO 16-D             87.84    137     150
TOLEDO 7-D              86.52    248     193
TOLEDO 22-K             86.27    140     122
TOLEDO 7-M              86.06    198     186
TOLEDO 7-H              86.04    170     199
TOLEDO 7-F              85.69    215     205
TOLEDO 12-N             85.40    243     303
TOLEDO 16-G             85.23    317     203
TOLEDO 7-L              84.86    271     261
TOLEDO 22-E             84.36    169     182
TOLEDO 7-C              84.14    268     165
TOLEDO 13-K             84.01     41     225
TOLEDO 22-F             83.98    163     118
TOLEDO 7-I              83.55    153     159
TOLEDO 7-G              83.45    245     248
TOLEDO 23-N             82.94    202     248
TOLEDO 5-J              82.52    169     318
TOLEDO 22-B             82.28    259     296
TOLEDO 12-M             82.13    281     337
TOLEDO 16-N             82.13    334     315
TOLEDO 7-N              81.82    160     214
TOLEDO 15-L             81.71    193     273
TOLEDO 16-I             81.70    253     169
TOLEDO 5-I              81.66    259     330
TOLEDO 15-K             81.60    161     171
TOLEDO 16-H             81.51    149     139
TOLEDO 3-L              81.34    128     199
TOLEDO 23-O             81.17    217     248
TOLEDO 1-J              81.10    224     391
TOLEDO 3-P              80.89    126     163
TOLEDO 16-A             80.83    193     189
TOLEDO 7-K              80.81    172     202
TOLEDO 21-L             80.78    290     301
TOLEDO 3-E              80.76     90     145
TOLEDO 1-K              80.67    175     251
TOLEDO 23-A             80.67    221     257
TOLEDO 23-Q             80.31    137     215
TOLEDO 16-M             80.30    136     181
TOLEDO 16-B             80.28    201     295
TOLEDO 23-G             80.23    109     168
TOLEDO 1-H              80.22    219     359
TOLEDO 22-D             80.16    138     160
TOLEDO 3-F              80.00    175     251

Altogether there were 45 precincts in Toledo with more than 80% reported turnout, almost unheard of in an urban area.  Of these 45 precincts, 12 were won by Bush, including 8 of the top 15.  The other 33 precincts were won by Kerry.  Most of these precincts were competitive.  The reported vote, in the aggregate, was 10,148 for Kerry, and 8,775 for Bush.  But once again, look at the concentration.  All 10 of the precincts with more than 85% reported turnout are located in 4 wards.  Of the 17 precincts with more than 83% reported turnout, 13 are located in 2 wards, and 15 are located in 3 wards.  Of the 45 precincts with more than 80% reported turnout, 25 are located in 3 wards.

REPORTED VOTER TURNOUT IN TOLEDO WARDS, 2004

                   Registered  Votes   Percent
Ward / Township       Voters  Counted  Turnout  Bush  Kerry
 
TOLEDO WARD 16          8941    6964    77.89   3162   3734
TOLEDO WARD 22          7794    6047    77.59   2763   3219
TOLEDO WARD 7           7650    5931    77.53   2764   3110
TOLEDO WARD 21          9141    7066    77.30   3308   3685
TOLEDO WARD 23         10987    8313    75.66   3352   4861
TOLEDO WARD 1           9202    6942    75.44   2434   4419
TOLEDO WARD 5           9405    6948    73.88   2585   4300
TOLEDO WARD 12          9470    6824    72.06   2488   4263
TOLEDO WARD 9           8557    6132    71.66   2185   3877
TOLEDO WARD 3           9682    6926    71.53   2511   4347
TOLEDO WARD 11          7283    5138    70.55   1877   3199
TOLEDO WARD 6           9467    6597    69.68   1165   5376
TOLEDO WARD 15          8270    5740    69.41   1980   3702
TOLEDO WARD 24         10349    6975    67.40   3045   3857
TOLEDO WARD 13          7074    4730    66.86    453   4243
TOLEDO WARD 10          8037    5112    63.61    577   4492
TOLEDO WARD 14          6679    4245    63.56    191   4021
TOLEDO WARD 20          5911    3750    63.44    853   2845
TOLEDO WARD 4           8209    5150    62.74    585   4506
TOLEDO WARD 18          5409    3242    59.94    722   2471
TOLEDO WARD 17          6993    3947    56.44    911   2977
TOLEDO WARD 8           8710    4867    55.88    330   4480
TOLEDO WARD 19          5214    2839    54.45    696   2111
TOLEDO WARD 2           6737    3552    52.72    535   2971
 
TOTAL TOLEDO          195171  133977    68.65  41472  91066
TOTAL SUBURBS         104148   81743    78.49  43664  37355
COUNTY WIDE           299319  215720    72.07  85136 128421

These numbers do not quite match those reported on Election Night, but they are close enough to make the point.  The general pattern speaks for itself.  The more competitive the ward, the higher the reported turnout.  Conversely, the less competitive the ward, the lower the reported turnout.  This pattern cannot be explained by claiming that voters were unenthusiastic about John Kerry, because he did win every ward in Toledo.  In fact, Kerry’s margin of victory was 20.24%, compared to 18.68% for Al Gore.

It is still my opinion that the election in Lucas County was rigged.  We now know that computers were stolen from the Lucas County Democratic headquarters three weeks before Election Day.  Among the data stolen were e-mails discussing campaign strategy, candidates' schedules, financial information, and phone numbers of party members, candidates, donors, and volunteers.  The burglary allowed the thieves to target specific wards and precincts for voter suppression operations, which could explain the low turnout in Democratic precincts.  If turnout had been equal in Toledo and the suburbs, Kerry’s plurality in Lucas County would have been considerably larger.

We also now know that voter turnout in the 2000 presidential election was also much higher in the suburbs than in Toledo.  These data were not available to us until after the first draft of this report was written.  A comparison is presented below:

REPORTED VOTER TURNOUT IN TOLEDO WARDS, 2000

                   Registered  Votes   Percent
Ward / Township       Voters  Counted  Turnout  Bush   Gore
 
TOLEDO WARD 16          8410    5872    69.82   2620   3017
TOLEDO WARD 21          8104    5627    69.43   2515   2901
TOLEDO WARD 7           6954    4802    69.05   2293   2346
TOLEDO WARD 22          6777    4444    65.57   2060   2218
TOLEDO WARD 23         10697    6980    65.25   2821   3905
TOLEDO WARD 1           8904    5677    63.76   1999   3496
TOLEDO WARD 12          8306    5255    63.27   2024   2981
TOLEDO WARD 5           8510    5284    62.09   1889   3199
TOLEDO WARD 9           8483    5096    60.07   1835   3020
TOLEDO WARD 11          7131    4181    58.63   1521   2485
TOLEDO WARD 3          10568    6116    57.87   2246   3668
TOLEDO WARD 15          7852    4427    56.38   1581   2649
TOLEDO WARD 6           8595    4813    56.00    711   3982
TOLEDO WARD 13          6791    3644    53.66    309   3247
TOLEDO WARD 14          6242    3323    53.24    106   3165
TOLEDO WARD 24          9720    5146    52.94   2275   2712
TOLEDO WARD 4           6988    3591    51.39    450   3021
TOLEDO WARD 20          5222    2584    49.48    595   1876
TOLEDO WARD 10          7649    3768    49.26    402   3208
TOLEDO WARD 18          5257    2275    43.28    511   1682
TOLEDO WARD 8           7785    3348    43.01    119   3146
TOLEDO WARD 19          5407    2184    40.39    540   1565
TOLEDO WARD 17          6920    2625    37.93    595   1906
TOLEDO WARD 2           6244    2175    34.83    372   1718
 
TOTAL TOLEDO          183516  103237    56.26  32389  67113
TOTAL SUBURBS          91838   61053    66.48  31529  27546
COUNTY WIDE           275354  164290    59.67  63918  94659

It now becomes obvious that voter suppression in inner-city precincts has been going on for a long time.  The Republicans have it down to an art form, as described in my companion paper, “Another Third Rate Burglary.”