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I give my heartfelt thanks to Ellis Goldberg for obtaining and abstracting the data from the Lucas County canvass records, and to Coleen Christensen for producing the spreadsheets, which made it possible for me to write this report in a timely manner.
The very first thing we all noticed when examining the precinct canvass records for Lucas County was the distribution of turnout. The range is striking, and turnout is distinctly higher in the Bush precincts than in the Kerry precincts. In some precincts the reported turnout is too high to be credible.
PRECINCTS WITH HIGHEST TURNOUT, TOLEDO SUBURBS
Precinct Turnout Bush Kerry
MONCLOVA TOWNSHIP 10 92.67 217 161
MONCLOVA TOWNSHIP 11 92.46 424 298
SYLVANIA TOWNSHIP J 91.97 84 40
OREGON 16 89.46 186 210
MAUMEE 18 89.44 205 190
MONCLOVA TOWNSHIP 7 87.78 285 151
MONCLOVA TOWNSHIP 9 87.58 195 78
RICHFIELD TOWNSHIP 2 86.76 105 83
SYLVANIA TOWNSHIP K 86.74 338 177
SYLVANIA TOWNSHIP I 86.48 270 184
SPRINGFIELD TOWNSHIP 25 86.17 230 116
OREGON 5 86.09 382 390
MONCLOVA TOWNSHIP 5 85.96 365 181
MAUMEE 12 85.48 197 262
WATERVILLE TOWNSHIP 7 85.36 328 189
OREGON 15 85.23 189 287
YLVANIA CITY 18 85.05 434 214
SPRINGFIELD TOWNSHIP 9 84.98 297 147
SYLVANIA CITY 10 84.87 254 157
SYLVANIA CITY 21 84.87 516 295
SYLVANIA TOWNSHIP H 84.85 211 122
WATERVILLE TOWNSHIP 3 84.56 356 304
WATERVILLE TOWNSHIP 6 84.48 293 183
WATERVILLE TOWNSHIP 9 84.31 542 260
SYLVANIA TOWNSHIP CC 84.21 262 194
Turnout above 90% is almost unheard of. I have examined the canvass records in eight other Ohio counties and have seen reported turnout above 90% only in two precincts in Miami County where, in my professional opinion, the election was hacked. Miami and Lucas counties are also the only two counties whose records I have examined that used optical scanning machines, as confirmed by the map posted at verifiedvoting.org/verifier/map.php?&topic_string=5std&state=Ohio.
I also noticed that among the suburban precincts with the highest reported turnout, 4 of the top 7 are in one township, 7 of the top 10 are in two townships, and 14 of the top 25 are in three townships. The Lucas County Board of Elections did not provide turnout data and vote totals at the town or ward level, so I have calculated them from the precinct data:
REPORTED VOTER TURNOUT IN TOLEDO SUBURBS
Registered Votes Percent
City/Township Voters Counted Turnout Bush Kerry
RICHFIELD TOWNSHIP 1124 949 84.43 523 410
MONCLOVA TOWNSHIP 7024 5863 83.47 3754 2073
WATERVILLE TOWNSHIP 7325 5980 81.64 3657 2255
OTTAWA HILLS VILLAGE 3560 2858 80.28 1656 1180
SYLVANIA TOWNSHIP 19555 15691 80.24 8924 6654
MAUMEE 10820 8632 79.78 4228 4308
PROVIDENCE TOWNSHIP 2413 1921 79.61 1092 810
SYLVANIA CITY 13361 10586 79.23 6029 4466
OREGON 13353 10495 78.60 4258 6121
JERUSALEM TOWNSHIP 2121 1664 78.45 713 938
WASHINGTON TOWNSHIP 2235 1699 76.02 673 1020
HARDING TOWNSHIP 488 370 75.82 200 168
SWANTON TOWNSHIP 2084 1573 75.48 740 821
SPRINGFIELD TOWNSHIP 17407 12592 72.34 6891 5601
SPENCER TOWNSHIP 1209 834 68.98 312 508
HARBOR VIEW VILLAGE 69 36 52.17 14 22
TOTAL 104148 81743 78.49 43664 37355
These are very high turnout rates for entire cities, villages and towns. Note that Bush won 7 of the 9 largest, and 6 of those are near the top of the list. The real story, however, is in Toledo.
TOLEDO PRECINCTS WITH LOWEST REPORTED TURNOUT
Precinct Turnout Bush Kerry
TOLEDO 8-I 39.18 100 328
TOLEDO 18-C 44.01 28 280
TOLEDO 2-D 46.18 50 388
TOLEDO 2-A 47.40 68 275
TOLEDO 8-J 47.50 48 315
TOLEDO 19-C 49.07 117 404
TOLEDO 24-B 49.41 142 191
TOLEDO 2-I 49.91 28 237
TOLEDO 19-D 50.35 45 167
TOLEDO 17-I 50.63 78 283
TOLEDO 2-H 51.47 57 335
TOLEDO 2-G 51.63 59 346
TOLEDO 2-F 52.24 28 294
TOLEDO 18-B 52.32 47 196
TOLEDO 17-C 52.53 34 171
TOLEDO 15-J 52.61 80 271
TOLEDO 4-N 52.69 52 396
TOLEDO 7-B 52.85 72 367
TOLEDO 17-J 53.15 110 343
TOLEDO 17-F 53.46 111 475
TOLEDO 2-C 53.47 70 236
TOLEDO 15-A 53.92 84 209
TOLEDO 8-M 53.98 31 125
TOLEDO 17-H 54.22 89 286
TOLEDO 10-A 54.41 52 424
TOLEDO 6-K 54.48 20 124
TOLEDO 19-B 54.57 101 251
TOLEDO 8-F 54.65 11 222
TOLEDO 19-A 54.89 77 294
TOLEDO 24-D 55.12 206 283
TOLEDO 17-D 55.14 48 145
TOLEDO 14-F 55.42 8 216
TOLEDO 24-E 55.73 112 191
TOLEDO 19-F 55.82 91 230
TOLEDO 18-A 56.22 75 266
TOLEDO 19-E 56.25 55 188
TOLEDO 8-H 56.47 17 221
TOLEDO 6-M 56.51 77 252
TOLEDO 8-C 56.57 9 417
TOLEDO 12-E 56.81 144 291
TOLEDO 17-G 56.87 103 370
TOLEDO 19-H 56.91 75 237
TOLEDO 3-I 57.07 86 253
TOLEDO 4-E 57.14 37 254
TOLEDO 8-K 57.32 33 611
TOLEDO 20-A 57.48 62 292
TOLEDO 14-E 57.77 11 411
TOLEDO 8-L 58.02 20 515
TOLEDO 17-E 58.02 23 70
TOLEDO 8-G 58.29 13 320
TOLEDO 18-G 58.67 80 237
TOLEDO 4-H 58.75 24 278
TOLEDO 13-E 58.78 13 401
TOLEDO 6-F 58.81 167 242
TOLEDO 4-C 59.23 74 380
TOLEDO 18-I 59.56 58 261
TOLEDO 2-B 59.64 60 430
TOLEDO 10-G 59.68 9 289
TOLEDO 19-G 59.70 135 340
TOLEDO 20-I 59.78 34 127
TOLEDO 13-G 59.83 18 259
TOLEDO 13-A 59.84 11 207
TOLEDO 3-C 59.94 82 308
Altogether there were 63 precincts in Toledo with less than 60% reported turnout. All of them were won overwhelmingly by John Kerry. The vote in the aggregate was 19,353 to 4,247, more than 4.5 to 1. But look at the distribution, or more precisely, the concentration. Of the 8 precincts with less than 50% reported turnout, 4 are located in 2 wards. Of the 29 precincts with less than 55% reported turnout, 20 are located in 4 wards, and 24 are located in 6 wards. Of the 63 precincts with less than 60% reported turnout, 34 are located in 4 wards, 39 are located in 5 wards, and 43 are located in 6 wards.
TOLEDO PRECINCTS WITH HIGHEST REPORTED TURNOUT
Precinct Turnout Bush Kerry
TOLEDO 22-M 88.80 222 227
TOLEDO 22-G 88.20 204 217
TOLEDO 16-D 87.84 137 150
TOLEDO 7-D 86.52 248 193
TOLEDO 22-K 86.27 140 122
TOLEDO 7-M 86.06 198 186
TOLEDO 7-H 86.04 170 199
TOLEDO 7-F 85.69 215 205
TOLEDO 12-N 85.40 243 303
TOLEDO 16-G 85.23 317 203
TOLEDO 7-L 84.86 271 261
TOLEDO 22-E 84.36 169 182
TOLEDO 7-C 84.14 268 165
TOLEDO 13-K 84.01 41 225
TOLEDO 22-F 83.98 163 118
TOLEDO 7-I 83.55 153 159
TOLEDO 7-G 83.45 245 248
TOLEDO 23-N 82.94 202 248
TOLEDO 5-J 82.52 169 318
TOLEDO 22-B 82.28 259 296
TOLEDO 12-M 82.13 281 337
TOLEDO 16-N 82.13 334 315
TOLEDO 7-N 81.82 160 214
TOLEDO 15-L 81.71 193 273
TOLEDO 16-I 81.70 253 169
TOLEDO 5-I 81.66 259 330
TOLEDO 15-K 81.60 161 171
TOLEDO 16-H 81.51 149 139
TOLEDO 3-L 81.34 128 199
TOLEDO 23-O 81.17 217 248
TOLEDO 1-J 81.10 224 391
TOLEDO 3-P 80.89 126 163
TOLEDO 16-A 80.83 193 189
TOLEDO 7-K 80.81 172 202
TOLEDO 21-L 80.78 290 301
TOLEDO 3-E 80.76 90 145
TOLEDO 1-K 80.67 175 251
TOLEDO 23-A 80.67 221 257
TOLEDO 23-Q 80.31 137 215
TOLEDO 16-M 80.30 136 181
TOLEDO 16-B 80.28 201 295
TOLEDO 23-G 80.23 109 168
TOLEDO 1-H 80.22 219 359
TOLEDO 22-D 80.16 138 160
TOLEDO 3-F 80.00 175 251
Altogether there were 45 precincts in Toledo with more than 80% reported turnout, almost unheard of in an urban area. Of these 45 precincts, 12 were won by Bush, including 8 of the top 15. The other 33 precincts were won by Kerry. Most of these precincts were competitive. The reported vote, in the aggregate, was 10,148 for Kerry, and 8,775 for Bush. But once again, look at the concentration. All 10 of the precincts with more than 85% reported turnout are located in 4 wards. Of the 17 precincts with more than 83% reported turnout, 13 are located in 2 wards, and 15 are located in 3 wards. Of the 45 precincts with more than 80% reported turnout, 25 are located in 3 wards.
REPORTED VOTER TURNOUT IN TOLEDO WARDS, 2004
Registered Votes Percent
Ward / Township Voters Counted Turnout Bush Kerry
TOLEDO WARD 16 8941 6964 77.89 3162 3734
TOLEDO WARD 22 7794 6047 77.59 2763 3219
TOLEDO WARD 7 7650 5931 77.53 2764 3110
TOLEDO WARD 21 9141 7066 77.30 3308 3685
TOLEDO WARD 23 10987 8313 75.66 3352 4861
TOLEDO WARD 1 9202 6942 75.44 2434 4419
TOLEDO WARD 5 9405 6948 73.88 2585 4300
TOLEDO WARD 12 9470 6824 72.06 2488 4263
TOLEDO WARD 9 8557 6132 71.66 2185 3877
TOLEDO WARD 3 9682 6926 71.53 2511 4347
TOLEDO WARD 11 7283 5138 70.55 1877 3199
TOLEDO WARD 6 9467 6597 69.68 1165 5376
TOLEDO WARD 15 8270 5740 69.41 1980 3702
TOLEDO WARD 24 10349 6975 67.40 3045 3857
TOLEDO WARD 13 7074 4730 66.86 453 4243
TOLEDO WARD 10 8037 5112 63.61 577 4492
TOLEDO WARD 14 6679 4245 63.56 191 4021
TOLEDO WARD 20 5911 3750 63.44 853 2845
TOLEDO WARD 4 8209 5150 62.74 585 4506
TOLEDO WARD 18 5409 3242 59.94 722 2471
TOLEDO WARD 17 6993 3947 56.44 911 2977
TOLEDO WARD 8 8710 4867 55.88 330 4480
TOLEDO WARD 19 5214 2839 54.45 696 2111
TOLEDO WARD 2 6737 3552 52.72 535 2971
TOTAL TOLEDO 195171 133977 68.65 41472 91066
TOTAL SUBURBS 104148 81743 78.49 43664 37355
COUNTY WIDE 299319 215720 72.07 85136 128421
These numbers do not quite match those reported on Election Night, but they are close enough to make the point. The general pattern speaks for itself. The more competitive the ward, the higher the reported turnout. Conversely, the less competitive the ward, the lower the reported turnout. This pattern cannot be explained by claiming that voters were unenthusiastic about John Kerry, because he did win every ward in Toledo. In fact, Kerry’s margin of victory was 20.24%, compared to 18.68% for Al Gore.
It is still my opinion that the election in Lucas County was rigged. We now know that computers were stolen from the Lucas County Democratic headquarters three weeks before Election Day. Among the data stolen were e-mails discussing campaign strategy, candidates' schedules, financial information, and phone numbers of party members, candidates, donors, and volunteers. The burglary allowed the thieves to target specific wards and precincts for voter suppression operations, which could explain the low turnout in Democratic precincts. If turnout had been equal in Toledo and the suburbs, Kerry’s plurality in Lucas County would have been considerably larger.
We also now know that voter turnout in the 2000 presidential election was also much higher in the suburbs than in Toledo. These data were not available to us until after the first draft of this report was written. A comparison is presented below:
REPORTED VOTER TURNOUT IN TOLEDO WARDS, 2000
Registered Votes Percent
Ward / Township Voters Counted Turnout Bush Gore
TOLEDO WARD 16 8410 5872 69.82 2620 3017
TOLEDO WARD 21 8104 5627 69.43 2515 2901
TOLEDO WARD 7 6954 4802 69.05 2293 2346
TOLEDO WARD 22 6777 4444 65.57 2060 2218
TOLEDO WARD 23 10697 6980 65.25 2821 3905
TOLEDO WARD 1 8904 5677 63.76 1999 3496
TOLEDO WARD 12 8306 5255 63.27 2024 2981
TOLEDO WARD 5 8510 5284 62.09 1889 3199
TOLEDO WARD 9 8483 5096 60.07 1835 3020
TOLEDO WARD 11 7131 4181 58.63 1521 2485
TOLEDO WARD 3 10568 6116 57.87 2246 3668
TOLEDO WARD 15 7852 4427 56.38 1581 2649
TOLEDO WARD 6 8595 4813 56.00 711 3982
TOLEDO WARD 13 6791 3644 53.66 309 3247
TOLEDO WARD 14 6242 3323 53.24 106 3165
TOLEDO WARD 24 9720 5146 52.94 2275 2712
TOLEDO WARD 4 6988 3591 51.39 450 3021
TOLEDO WARD 20 5222 2584 49.48 595 1876
TOLEDO WARD 10 7649 3768 49.26 402 3208
TOLEDO WARD 18 5257 2275 43.28 511 1682
TOLEDO WARD 8 7785 3348 43.01 119 3146
TOLEDO WARD 19 5407 2184 40.39 540 1565
TOLEDO WARD 17 6920 2625 37.93 595 1906
TOLEDO WARD 2 6244 2175 34.83 372 1718
TOTAL TOLEDO 183516 103237 56.26 32389 67113
TOTAL SUBURBS 91838 61053 66.48 31529 27546
COUNTY WIDE 275354 164290 59.67 63918 94659
It now becomes obvious that voter suppression in inner-city precincts has been going on for a long time. The Republicans have it down to an art form, as described in my companion paper, “Another Third Rate Burglary.”