Many Lessons for us All in Lula’s Victory in Brazil

With the Brazilian vote count 100 percent complete, the headlines echo the news of Lula da Silva’s come from behind victory for a record fourth term as president of Brazil. Since democracy was restored, this is not only a record number of terms, but the first time someone has come from a distant second place in the first primary to a conclusive victory in the general election. As the reports also make clear, it is the first victory in Latin America of a left-progressive candidate after seven consecutive victories by the far-right in other Latin American elections including Argentina and Chile among others.

The tale of the tape is interesting. Flavio Bolsonaro, son of a former president now serving a long stretch in prison for trying to overthrow the government after he lost to Lula in the last election, had won in the first round. Other conservative contestants had endorsed him leading the oddsmakers to believe he was strongly favored. 128 million Brazilians voted in the general compared to 125 in the first round, when historically there has been a drop off in voters. Bolsonaro picked up several million votes compared to his earlier total, but Lula gain ten million. Lula won with 51.8 percent of the vote compared to Bolsonaro’s 48.2 percent, a better margin than when he beat Bosonaro’s father in the last election.

What turned the tide in such a major GOTV accomplishment? Part of it was moving young voters aggressively to the polls. In three weeks, a so-called “Lula’s Army” was formed on WhatsApp, growing in that period from 80,000 to over 10 million, urging people to vote. The call was not just to vote, but to also to party, which inspired turnout. Reportedly one-million recently attended a Lula party on Copacabana Beach in Rio for example. Keep in mind US reports about the way young voters have swung back to Democrats for the coming midterm elections.

Lula was able to also move people on the issues by attacking Bolsonaro’s ties and support from the deeply unpopular Trump, while underlining his constant opposition to Trump policies on tariffs and other issues over the last two years. He was able to make the case that Bolsonaro would be a US and Trump puppet. Trump’s brand now carries the smell of death politically. 

Lula was also able to tap into fears about tech overlords. There was of course the earlier fight with Elon Musk that led to X-Twitter being blocked until Musk caved in after several months and agreed to continue to police some content in Brazil, but there was also a steady drumbeat against Meta-Facebook’s interference in the election, its blocking content from pro-Lula supporters, and removing some posts from others. The tide is finally going out on social media, tech billionaires and data centers around the world, and Lula was able to weaponize this in his campaign.

Like so many elections, the victory doesn’t bring the country together yet, as much as highlight the divisions. Bolsonaro is already crying foul and challenging the results and demanding an audit, which in the past has never overturned an election at this level. Voters want change on real issues, and Lula will face strong headwinds in Congress where Bolsonaro’s allies are well represented. 

It’s never over until it’s totally over, but this is a victory that teaches us all about the importance of a candidate’s carrying the continuance of democracy on their shoulders against the tilt towards autocracy. The Serbian elections, deposing another autocrat, echo this cry as well. We’ll soon see if other countries, including our own, and candidates can follow.