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I give my heartfelt thanks to Brian Julin for producing the spreadsheets and the tables of data that made it possible for me to write this report in a timely manner.
This is the fourth in a series of reports on uncounted votes in urban counties of Ohio. These are ballots cast but not counted because they were regarded as “undervotes” and “overvotes,” or “blank” and “void,” as they are known in New York State. The true number of such votes can be easily determined by subtracting votes counted from total ballots cast.
Shortly after the election I obtained from the website of the Ohio Secretary of State the data I needed to make a statewide compilation on a county by county basis of the uncounted votes, exclusive of provisional ballots. These data have since been taken down from said website. I present them here.
Cuyahoga County
Registered Voters 1,005,807
Ballots Cast 665,334
Votes Counted 652,381
Votes Uncounted 12,953
Provisional Ballots 24,788
John F. Kerry 433,262
George W. Bush 215,624
Other candidates 3,495
Thus, according to the Ohio Secretary of State’s own data, the countywide percentage of uncounted votes, exclusive of provisional ballots, was 1.95%.
The Cuyahoga County Board of Elections has posted its official precinct canvass records dated November 30, 2004. The official results are presented here:
Cuyahoga County
Registered Voters 1,005,807
Ballots Cast 687,260
Votes Counted 673,729
Votes Uncounted 13,531
John F. Kerry 448,486
George W. Bush 221,606
Other candidates 3,637
There are still 13,531 uncounted votes in Cuyahoga County. Presumably 578 are provisional ballots, and the other 12,953 are the regular ballots that went uncounted on Election Day.
From the Cuyahoga County canvass records I have compiled the following table, presenting separate data for the vote totals, counted and uncounted, for Cleveland, the suburbs, regular ballots, and absentee ballots:
Cuyahoga County
Breakdown Ballots Cast Uncounted Bush Kerry
CLEVELAND 172,160 4,708 2.73% 26,435 139,580
SUBURBS 515,100 8,823 1.71% 195,171 308,906
REGULAR 602,048 10,701 1.78% 192,518 395,543
ABSENTEE 85,212 2,830 3.32% 29,088 52,943
TOTAL 687,260 13,531 1.97% 221,606 448,486
As shown in the table above, 34.79% of the uncounted votes are in Cleveland, which Kerry won with 83.36% of the vote to 15.79% for Bush. The percentage of uncounted votes in Cleveland, 2.73%, is much higher than the county wide percentage of 1.97%, but lower than the surprisingly high percentage of uncounted absentee ballots, 3.32%.
I had Brian Julin prepare a table of precincts sorted according to their percentage of uncounted ballots. Here are the results for the City of Cleveland:
PRECINCTS WITH 4.0% OR MORE UNCOUNTED BALLOTS
Precinct Ballots Cast Uncounted Bush Kerry
CLEVELAND 6-M 467 90 19.27% 9 367
CLEVELAND 8-I 328 41 12.50% 8 251
CLEVELAND 13-H 95 10 10.52% 10 71
CLEVELAND 5-F 464 45 9.70% 4 415
CLEVELAND 6-J 313 28 8.95% 9 276
CLEVELAND 15-I 303 24 7.92% 85 188
CLEVELAND 1-D 439 33 7.52% 14 391
CLEVELAND 6-D 145 10 6.90% 5 130
CLEVELAND 13-X 406 27 6.65% 8 333
CLEVELAND 11-R 373 23 6.17% 44 304
CLEVELAND 9-M 504 31 6.15% 15 458
CLEVELAND 14-F 299 18 6.02% 69 211
CLEVELAND 7-A 511 30 5.87% 20 460
CLEVELAND 9-R 430 25 5.81% 12 392
CLEVELAND 13-A 417 24 5.75% 44 347
CLEVELAND 7-U 472 27 5.72% 22 421
CLEVELAND 12-L 404 23 5.69% 56 323
CLEVELAND 17-N 311 17 5.47% 53 238
CLEVELAND 4-O 484 26 5.37% 13 439
CLEVELAND 6-U 354 19 5.37% 11 324
CLEVELAND 2-K 396 21 5.30% 10 365
CLEVELAND 14-J 379 20 5.28% 92 266
CLEVELAND 8-L 213 11 5.16% 19 182
CLEVELAND 4-F 563 29 5.15% 20 299
CLEVELAND 5-A 626 32 5.11% 28 556
CLEVELAND 4-G 431 22 5.10% 12 395
CLEVELAND 7-F 299 15 5.02% 10 274
CLEVELAND 5-K 419 21 5.01% 15 382
CLEVELAND 5-U 20 1 5.00% 0 19
CLEVELAND 3-K 397 19 4.79% 8 370
CLEVELAND 16-A 379 18 4.75% 95 266
CLEVELAND 6-W 128 6 4.69% 8 113
CLEVELAND 7-J 432 20 4.63% 13 397
CLEVELAND 4-B 326 15 4.60% 21 389
CLEVELAND 3-D 567 26 4.59% 20 521
CLEVELAND 14-E 330 15 4.55% 75 239
CLEVELAND 2-P 441 20 4.54% 11 407
CLEVELAND 10-Q 441 20 4.54% 10 398
CLEVELAND 1-S 443 20 4.51% 17 401
CLEVELAND 6-K 201 9 4.48% 27 165
CLEVELAND 2-F 380 17 4.47% 21 342
CLEVELAND 8-Q 562 25 4.45% 15 521
CLEVELAND 11-B 540 24 4.44% 52 463
CLEVELAND 6-G 451 20 4.43% 15 415
CLEVELAND 5-L 249 11 4.42% 9 229
CLEVELAND 8-B 569 25 4.39% 23 520
CLEVELAND 10-J 388 17 4.38% 44 327
CLEVELAND 7-I 343 15 4.37% 11 317
CLEVELAND 5-G 482 21 4.36% 14 447
CLEVELAND 5-E 392 17 4.34% 6 369
CLEVELAND 2-A 324 14 4.32% 18 292
CLEVELAND 14-O 304 13 4.28% 54 233
CLEVELAND 11-O 400 17 4.25% 42 329
CLEVELAND 2-O 546 23 4.21% 19 500
CLEVELAND 11-U 285 12 4.21% 25 247
CLEVELAND 17-B 409 17 4.16% 89 302
CLEVELAND 8-R 434 18 4.15% 6 409
CLEVELAND 17-L 316 13 4.11% 46 256
CLEVELAND 8-D 439 18 4.10% 25 394
CLEVELAND 10-N 415 17 4.10% 16 382
CLEVELAND 7-T 415 17 4.10% 19 377
CLEVELAND 9-N 464 19 4.09% 16 427
CLEVELAND 8-E 320 13 4.06% 8 299
CLEVELAND 6-L 425 17 4.00% 82 325
CLEVELAND 14-T 375 15 4.00% 71 286
In Cleveland there are 12 precincts with more than
6% of the ballots uncounted. These account for 380 uncounted votes, 8.07% of the city wide total, and 9.19% of the total ballots cast in these 12 precincts. John Kerry won them all overwhelmingly,
by a margin of 12 to 1 in the aggregate. There are 29 precincts with 5% or more of the ballots uncounted. These account for 743 uncounted votes, 15.78% of the city wide total, and 6.84% of the total ballots cast in these 29 precincts. John Kerry won them all overwhelmingly, by a margin of 12 to 1 in the aggregate. There are 65 precincts with 4% or more of the ballots uncounted. These account for 1,366 uncounted votes, 29.01% of the city wide total, and 5.43% of the total ballots cast in these 65 precincts. John Kerry won them all overwhelmingly, by a margin of 12 to 1 in the aggregate.
Elsewhere in Cuyahoga County there are 19 precincts with more than 4% of the ballots uncounted. These account for 383 uncounted votes, or 5.63% of the total ballots cast in these precincts. John Kerry won 17 of these precincts, 16 of them by overwhelming margins, 8 to 1 in the aggregate, and he ran nearly even with Bush, 585 to 589, in the other three.
PRECINCTS WITH 4.0% OR MORE UNCOUNTED BALLOTS
Precinct Ballots Cast Uncounted Bush Kerry
BEACHWOOD J 309 34 11.00% 53 222
EUCLID 3-C 448 45 10.04% 98 211
STRONGSVILLE 1-J 31 3 9.68% 13 15
EUCLID 4-D 595 41 6.89% 29 523
NORTH ROYALTON 3-A 524 34 6.49% 246 200
NORTH ROYALTON 5-B 444 25 5.63% 213 205
EAST CLEVELAND 2-D 273 15 5.49% 9 248
EUCLID 3-A 76 4 5.26% 22 37
EAST CLEVELAND 2-F 423 21 4.96% 23 379
GARFIELD HTS 1-B 61 3 4.92% 3 54
EAST CLEVELAND 4-D 469 23 4.90% 60 384
SOUTH EUCLID 1-D 535 24 4.49% 48 462
EAST CLEVELAND 3-A 388 17 4.38% 13 358
EAST CLEVELAND 2-C 368 16 4.35% 14 337
LAKEWOOD 3-E 351 15 4.27% 88 246
PARMA 9-J 328 14 4.27% 130 181
EAST CLEVELAND 3-F 379 16 4.22% 9 354
BEDFORD HTS 2-C 436 18 4.13% 28 389
EAST CLEVELAND 2-B 364 15 4.12% 9 339
Brian Julin provides this analysis: “Without considering ballot order (rotation) problems, which are obvious in several precincts as there are aberrant third party votes, and which may be less than obvious in collocated precincts where Bush and Kerry votes were swapped, if all undervotes were allocated in proportion to votes that were validly counted, Kerry would pick up approximately 7935 votes and Bush would pick up approximately 2675."
This is the fourth in a series of reports on uncounted votes in urban counties of Ohio. These are ballots cast but not counted because they were regarded as “undervotes” and “overvotes,” or “blank” and “void,” as they are known in New York State. The true number of such votes can be easily determined by subtracting votes counted from total ballots cast.
Shortly after the election I obtained from the website of the Ohio Secretary of State the data I needed to make a statewide compilation on a county by county basis of the uncounted votes, exclusive of provisional ballots. These data have since been taken down from said website. I present them here.
Cuyahoga County
Registered Voters 1,005,807
Ballots Cast 665,334
Votes Counted 652,381
Votes Uncounted 12,953
Provisional Ballots 24,788
John F. Kerry 433,262
George W. Bush 215,624
Other candidates 3,495
Thus, according to the Ohio Secretary of State’s own data, the countywide percentage of uncounted votes, exclusive of provisional ballots, was 1.95%.
The Cuyahoga County Board of Elections has posted its official precinct canvass records dated November 30, 2004. The official results are presented here:
Cuyahoga County
Registered Voters 1,005,807
Ballots Cast 687,260
Votes Counted 673,729
Votes Uncounted 13,531
John F. Kerry 448,486
George W. Bush 221,606
Other candidates 3,637
There are still 13,531 uncounted votes in Cuyahoga County. Presumably 578 are provisional ballots, and the other 12,953 are the regular ballots that went uncounted on Election Day.
From the Cuyahoga County canvass records I have compiled the following table, presenting separate data for the vote totals, counted and uncounted, for Cleveland, the suburbs, regular ballots, and absentee ballots:
Cuyahoga County
Breakdown Ballots Cast Uncounted Bush Kerry
CLEVELAND 172,160 4,708 2.73% 26,435 139,580
SUBURBS 515,100 8,823 1.71% 195,171 308,906
REGULAR 602,048 10,701 1.78% 192,518 395,543
ABSENTEE 85,212 2,830 3.32% 29,088 52,943
TOTAL 687,260 13,531 1.97% 221,606 448,486
As shown in the table above, 34.79% of the uncounted votes are in Cleveland, which Kerry won with 83.36% of the vote to 15.79% for Bush. The percentage of uncounted votes in Cleveland, 2.73%, is much higher than the county wide percentage of 1.97%, but lower than the surprisingly high percentage of uncounted absentee ballots, 3.32%.
I had Brian Julin prepare a table of precincts sorted according to their percentage of uncounted ballots. Here are the results for the City of Cleveland:
PRECINCTS WITH 4.0% OR MORE UNCOUNTED BALLOTS
Precinct Ballots Cast Uncounted Bush Kerry
CLEVELAND 6-M 467 90 19.27% 9 367
CLEVELAND 8-I 328 41 12.50% 8 251
CLEVELAND 13-H 95 10 10.52% 10 71
CLEVELAND 5-F 464 45 9.70% 4 415
CLEVELAND 6-J 313 28 8.95% 9 276
CLEVELAND 15-I 303 24 7.92% 85 188
CLEVELAND 1-D 439 33 7.52% 14 391
CLEVELAND 6-D 145 10 6.90% 5 130
CLEVELAND 13-X 406 27 6.65% 8 333
CLEVELAND 11-R 373 23 6.17% 44 304
CLEVELAND 9-M 504 31 6.15% 15 458
CLEVELAND 14-F 299 18 6.02% 69 211
CLEVELAND 7-A 511 30 5.87% 20 460
CLEVELAND 9-R 430 25 5.81% 12 392
CLEVELAND 13-A 417 24 5.75% 44 347
CLEVELAND 7-U 472 27 5.72% 22 421
CLEVELAND 12-L 404 23 5.69% 56 323
CLEVELAND 17-N 311 17 5.47% 53 238
CLEVELAND 4-O 484 26 5.37% 13 439
CLEVELAND 6-U 354 19 5.37% 11 324
CLEVELAND 2-K 396 21 5.30% 10 365
CLEVELAND 14-J 379 20 5.28% 92 266
CLEVELAND 8-L 213 11 5.16% 19 182
CLEVELAND 4-F 563 29 5.15% 20 299
CLEVELAND 5-A 626 32 5.11% 28 556
CLEVELAND 4-G 431 22 5.10% 12 395
CLEVELAND 7-F 299 15 5.02% 10 274
CLEVELAND 5-K 419 21 5.01% 15 382
CLEVELAND 5-U 20 1 5.00% 0 19
CLEVELAND 3-K 397 19 4.79% 8 370
CLEVELAND 16-A 379 18 4.75% 95 266
CLEVELAND 6-W 128 6 4.69% 8 113
CLEVELAND 7-J 432 20 4.63% 13 397
CLEVELAND 4-B 326 15 4.60% 21 389
CLEVELAND 3-D 567 26 4.59% 20 521
CLEVELAND 14-E 330 15 4.55% 75 239
CLEVELAND 2-P 441 20 4.54% 11 407
CLEVELAND 10-Q 441 20 4.54% 10 398
CLEVELAND 1-S 443 20 4.51% 17 401
CLEVELAND 6-K 201 9 4.48% 27 165
CLEVELAND 2-F 380 17 4.47% 21 342
CLEVELAND 8-Q 562 25 4.45% 15 521
CLEVELAND 11-B 540 24 4.44% 52 463
CLEVELAND 6-G 451 20 4.43% 15 415
CLEVELAND 5-L 249 11 4.42% 9 229
CLEVELAND 8-B 569 25 4.39% 23 520
CLEVELAND 10-J 388 17 4.38% 44 327
CLEVELAND 7-I 343 15 4.37% 11 317
CLEVELAND 5-G 482 21 4.36% 14 447
CLEVELAND 5-E 392 17 4.34% 6 369
CLEVELAND 2-A 324 14 4.32% 18 292
CLEVELAND 14-O 304 13 4.28% 54 233
CLEVELAND 11-O 400 17 4.25% 42 329
CLEVELAND 2-O 546 23 4.21% 19 500
CLEVELAND 11-U 285 12 4.21% 25 247
CLEVELAND 17-B 409 17 4.16% 89 302
CLEVELAND 8-R 434 18 4.15% 6 409
CLEVELAND 17-L 316 13 4.11% 46 256
CLEVELAND 8-D 439 18 4.10% 25 394
CLEVELAND 10-N 415 17 4.10% 16 382
CLEVELAND 7-T 415 17 4.10% 19 377
CLEVELAND 9-N 464 19 4.09% 16 427
CLEVELAND 8-E 320 13 4.06% 8 299
CLEVELAND 6-L 425 17 4.00% 82 325
CLEVELAND 14-T 375 15 4.00% 71 286
In Cleveland there are 12 precincts with more than
6% of the ballots uncounted. These account for 380 uncounted votes, 8.07% of the city wide total, and 9.19% of the total ballots cast in these 12 precincts. John Kerry won them all overwhelmingly,
by a margin of 12 to 1 in the aggregate. There are 29 precincts with 5% or more of the ballots uncounted. These account for 743 uncounted votes, 15.78% of the city wide total, and 6.84% of the total ballots cast in these 29 precincts. John Kerry won them all overwhelmingly, by a margin of 12 to 1 in the aggregate. There are 65 precincts with 4% or more of the ballots uncounted. These account for 1,366 uncounted votes, 29.01% of the city wide total, and 5.43% of the total ballots cast in these 65 precincts. John Kerry won them all overwhelmingly, by a margin of 12 to 1 in the aggregate.
Elsewhere in Cuyahoga County there are 19 precincts with more than 4% of the ballots uncounted. These account for 383 uncounted votes, or 5.63% of the total ballots cast in these precincts. John Kerry won 17 of these precincts, 16 of them by overwhelming margins, 8 to 1 in the aggregate, and he ran nearly even with Bush, 585 to 589, in the other three.
PRECINCTS WITH 4.0% OR MORE UNCOUNTED BALLOTS
Precinct Ballots Cast Uncounted Bush Kerry
BEACHWOOD J 309 34 11.00% 53 222
EUCLID 3-C 448 45 10.04% 98 211
STRONGSVILLE 1-J 31 3 9.68% 13 15
EUCLID 4-D 595 41 6.89% 29 523
NORTH ROYALTON 3-A 524 34 6.49% 246 200
NORTH ROYALTON 5-B 444 25 5.63% 213 205
EAST CLEVELAND 2-D 273 15 5.49% 9 248
EUCLID 3-A 76 4 5.26% 22 37
EAST CLEVELAND 2-F 423 21 4.96% 23 379
GARFIELD HTS 1-B 61 3 4.92% 3 54
EAST CLEVELAND 4-D 469 23 4.90% 60 384
SOUTH EUCLID 1-D 535 24 4.49% 48 462
EAST CLEVELAND 3-A 388 17 4.38% 13 358
EAST CLEVELAND 2-C 368 16 4.35% 14 337
LAKEWOOD 3-E 351 15 4.27% 88 246
PARMA 9-J 328 14 4.27% 130 181
EAST CLEVELAND 3-F 379 16 4.22% 9 354
BEDFORD HTS 2-C 436 18 4.13% 28 389
EAST CLEVELAND 2-B 364 15 4.12% 9 339
Brian Julin provides this analysis: “Without considering ballot order (rotation) problems, which are obvious in several precincts as there are aberrant third party votes, and which may be less than obvious in collocated precincts where Bush and Kerry votes were swapped, if all undervotes were allocated in proportion to votes that were validly counted, Kerry would pick up approximately 7935 votes and Bush would pick up approximately 2675."