01 April 2014

Three contiguous counties in southwestern Ohio, all traditionally Republican counties, gave unexpectedly large margins to George W. Bush over John F. Kerry on election night.  All three counties experienced a huge increase in voter turnout.  In all three counties, Bush received a higher percentage of the vote than he did in the 2000 election, and Kerry received a lower percentage of the vote than Al Gore did in 2000.  This study analyzes how it happened.



In Warren County, the administrative building was
locked down on election night, all in the name of
"homeland security."  No independent persons were
allowed to observe the vote count.  Compared to 2000, the population increased by 14.75%, the number of registered voters increased by 29.66%, voter turnout increased by 33.55%, Bush’s point spread increased from 42.24% to 44.58%, and Bush’s victory margin
increased from 29,176 votes to 41,124 votes.



In Clermont County, compared to 2000, the population increased by 4.39%, the number of registered voters increased by 10.20%, voter turnout increased by 24.86%, Bush's point spread increased from 37.50%
to 41.69%, and Bush's victory margin increased from 26,202 votes to 36,376 votes.



In Butler County, compared to 2000, the population increased by 3.12%, the number of registered voters increased by 10.06%, voter turnout increased by 18.18%, Bush's point spread increased from 29.40%
to 32.52%, and Bush's victory margin increased from 40,197 votes to 52,550 votes.



These three counties provided to George W. Bush a victory margin of 130,050 votes, nearly equal to his statewide margin of 136,483 votes.



All the above data are figures provided on election night.  It is preferable, when making comparisons, to use synoptic data, and as of this writing, not all counties have finalized their vote count.



To analyze how the Republicans achieved their impressive victory margins, I have compared the results of the 2004 and 2000 presidential elections.  Tables of data are arranged by city or township, showing vote totals for the candidates, pluralities, gains or losses, and the difference between the margins of 2004 and 2000.  In this way it can be readily seen where the victory margins came from.



BUTLER COUNTY

 

 

St. Clair Township  + 523

 

           Rep.     Dem.     Plur.

2004       1,877    1,008      869

2000       1,466    1,120      346

Change       411    - 112      523




These election results are not credible.  Voter turnout was up substantially (8.27%), yet Kerry got 10% fewer votes than Gore.  Exactly.



Precinct   Bush  Kerry    Bush   Gore

4KA        217    173     152    213

4KB        224    125     186    104

4KC        210    104     148    126

4KD        235    119     181    129

4KE        224    128     191    146

4KF        294    171     231    188

4KG         94     36      92     50

4KH        379    152     285    164




In fact, Kerry is reported to have received fewer votes than Gore in 7 of 8 precincts in St. Clair Township.  Only Precinct 4KB appears realistic when compared with the 2000 results.



Liberty Township  + 3,078

 

           Rep.     Dem.     Plur.

2004      11,629    3,404    8,225

2000       7,619    2,472    5,147

Change     4,010      932    3,078

 




Liberty Township accounted for 24.9% of the reported increase in Bush’s margin of victory in Butler County.  Compared to 2000 there was reportedly a 41.02% increase in voter registration and a 46.43% increase in voter turnout.  Upon closer examination these numbers are not credible.



The increase in voter registration, as a percentage, is wildly distributed throughout the township.  There are 20 precincts in Liberty Township, including one, Precinct 4DT, that did not exist in 2000.  There were 11 precincts with less than a 30% increase in voter registration, 9 with less than 20%, 5 with less than 10%, and two that actually suffered a loss.  Bush’s net gain in these 11 precincts was 571 votes.  His big gains came in the 9 precincts with more than a 30% increase in voter registration:



Prec.   Regis.  Bush  Kerry   Bush   Gore  Net Gain

4DA   + 52.1%    632    161    423     89    + 137

4DB   + 33.8%    727    229    547    186    + 137

4DC   + 64.5%    635    201    360    117    + 191

4DF   + 34.0%    723    158    511    131    + 185

4DG   + 43.3%    704    185    505    129    + 143

4DI   +177.9%  1,220    288    413    118    + 637

4DO   +143.5%    979    270    358     96    + 447

4DP   + 34.3%    600    181    431    143    + 131

4DT      N.A.    676    177    N.A.   N.A.   + 499




Look at these numbers.  In Precinct 4DI, the number of registered voters rose from 660 to 1,834.  Bush’s share of the increased vote was 807 to 170, a net gain of 637 votes.  In Precinct 4DO, the number of registered voters rose from 596 to 1,451.  Bush’s share of the increase was 621 votes to 174 for Kerry, a net gain of 447 votes.  In Precinct 4DT, the brand new one, Bush’s net gain was 499 votes.  In these three precincts alone, Bush enjoyed a net gain of 1,583 votes, 51.43% of his net increase for the entire township, and 12.81% of his net increase for the entire county.  Altogether these 9 precincts gave Bush a net gain of 2,507 votes.  Or so they say.



Monroe City  + 782

 

           Rep.     Dem.     Plur.

2004       3,399    1,401    1,998

2000       2,303    1,087    1,216

Change     1,096      314      782




In Monroe City the increase in voter registration, as a percentage, is also unevenly distributed. 



Prec.   Regis.  Bush  Kerry   Bush   Gore  Net Gain

4CA   + 65.5%    496    219    272    138    + 143

4CB   +  0.7%    461    188    395    198    +  76

4CC   +  9.9%    604    216    511    209    +  86

5CA   + 38.8%    560    227    336    164    + 161

5CB   + 48.2%    279    129    176     80    +  54

5CC   -  2.4%    272    102    229    109    +  50

5CD   + 69.3%    727    320    384    189    + 212




Massive increases in the voter rolls in 4 of 7 precincts accounted for 72.3% of Bush’s net gain in Monroe City.  The records will show whether or not these huge increases are real.  In 2 of the other 3 precincts, Kerry got fewer votes than Gore even though voter turnout was up sharply.



Trenton City  + 785

 

           Rep.     Dem.     Plur.

2004       3,153    1,510    1,643

2000       2,088    1,230      858

Change     1,065      280      785




In Trenton City the increase in voter registration is more evenly distributed, ranging from 7.08% to 36.94% among 7 precincts; and the net gains for George W. Bush are more evenly distributed, ranging from 81 votes to 170 votes among 7 precincts.  The proof that the numbers are untrue is the distribution of votes among the candidates:



Prec.  Badnarik  Bush  Kerry  Petrouka

4EA        2     464    249     0 

4EB        2     661    272     0

4EC        2     373    191     0 

4ED        3     395    248     1

5EA       30     284    115     0

5EB        0     468    243     0

5EC        2     508    192     2

Total     41   3,153  1,510     3




In Precinct 5EA, the only one of 7 precincts in which John Kerry was awarded fewer votes than Al Gore (22 fewer, to be exact), 30 votes have been shifted to the column of Michael Badnarik, the Libertarian candidate.  There are 289 precincts in Butler County.  Badnarik received 396 votes county wide, no more than 6 in any other precinct, yet 30 votes appear in his column in this one precinct in Trenton City.  This is the very same pattern of election fraud that appears 11 times, on a larger scale, in the canvass reports for Cleveland.  See “Stealing Votes in Cleveland,” at



freepress.org/images/columns/steal_cleveland.pdf



Ross Township  + 512

 

           Rep.     Dem.     Plur.

2004       2,830      927    1,903

2000       2,206      815    1,391

Change       624      112      512




In Ross Township, George W. Bush received 64.1% of his net gain in 3 precincts (4JA, 4JB, 4JE) where, altogether, Kerry received fewer votes than Gore:



Prec.  Turnout   Bush  Kerry   Bush   Gore  Net Gain

4JA    + 24.3%    447    120    330    116    + 113

4JB    + 28.3%    537    138    389    128    + 138

4JC    + 50.2%    549    197    373    118    +  97

4JD    + 18.1%    464    125    403     98    +  34

4JE    +  4.4%    183     67    135     96    +  77

4JF    + 11.9%    400    190    352    162    +  20

4JG    +  3.0%    250     90    224     97    +  33

 




Look at these numbers.  In these 3 precincts, voter turnout was up by 22.1%.  Bush’s share of the increase was 313 votes to a loss of 15 votes for Kerry.  In the rest of Ross Township, where voter turnout was up by 22.3%, Bush’s share of the increase was 311 votes to 127 for Kerry.  These vote totals, all within the same township, are inconsistent.



Hanover Township  + 555

 

           Rep.     Dem.     Plur.

2004       3,262    1,197    2,065

2000       2,752    1,242    1,510

Change       510      -45      555

 

In Hanover Township the precinct lines have been redrawn during the last four years, making a precinct by precinct comparison impossible.  But look at these numbers.  Voter turnout was up 8.8%, from 4,170 to 4,537.  Bush gained 510 votes, and Kerry received 45 fewer votes than Gore.  These numbers are suspect.



St. Clair Township, Liberty Township, Monroe City, Trenton City, Ross Township, and Hanover Township account for 50.47% of the increase in Bush’s margin of victory in Butler County.  There are enough statistical irregularities in the canvass sheets to warrant examination of the voting records and close scrutiny during the recount.


WARREN COUNTY



There would be no easier county in Ohio in which to hack election results than Warren County.  Unlike all other counties in the state, the canvass records of Warren County are not organized geographically.  Not even the sum totals for cities and townships can be compared because the place names in the 2004 canvass records are not the same as they were in 2000.  The names of the precincts are in code, and they appear on the canvass sheets in a fixed but random order.  Only a sleuth would rearrange them into cities and townships, which, of course, is what I have done.



Once the data are presented in a sensible format, the voter registration data is not as irregular as it appears when presented by the Board of Elections.  The constantly changing precinct boundaries make data presented in that manner almost indecipherable.  Still, when the data are combined according to cities, villages and townships, it can be seen that the increase in voter registration since 2000 ranged from 7.7% in Morrow Village to 79.0% in Hamilton Township, and was 29.66% county wide, which is more than double the population increase of 14.75%.



George W. Bush carried Warren County by 41,992 votes, an increase of 12,816 over his plurality in 2000.  Most of his plurality (28,869 votes, or 68.75%) and most of the increase in his margin of victory (9,047 votes, or 70.59%) came in six cities and townships:



Lebanon City  + 1,324

           Reg.     Rep.     Dem.     Plur.

2004      11,641    5,956    2,278    3,678

2000       8,795    4,011    1,657    2,354

Change    +32.4%    1,945      621    1,324

 

Mason City  + 2,009

           Reg.     Rep.     Dem.     Plur.

2004      19,221   10,858    3,805    7,053

2000      13,899    7,653    2,609    5,044

Change    +38.3%    3,205    1,196    2,009

 

Springboro City  + 1,321

           Reg.     Rep.     Dem.     Plur.

2004      10,447    5,985    2,189    3,796

2000       8,139    4,230    1,755    2,475

Change    +28.4%    1,755      434    1,321

 

Clear Creek Township  + 1,104

           Reg.     Rep.     Dem.     Plur.

2004       8,145    4,997    1,574    3,423

2000       6,177    3,503    1,184    2,319

Change    +31.9%    1,494      390    1,104

 

Deerfield Township  + 1,365

           Reg.     Rep.     Dem.     Plur.

2004      21,220   11,319    4,529    6,790

2000      16,359    8,527    3,102    5,425

Change    +29.7%    2,792    1,427    1,365

 

Hamilton Township + 1,924

           Reg.     Rep.     Dem.     Plur.

2004      10,681    6,226    2,097    4,129

2000       5,967    3,399    1,194    2,205

Change    +79.0%    2,827      903    1,924




In Lebanon City, Springboro City, Clear Creek Township, and Hamilton Township, Bush’s point spread over his opponent actually increased.  If the Warren County results were hacked, as many people suspect, then these would be the places to look:



                       Bush   Kerry     Bush   Gore

Lebanon City          72.04   27.55    68.83   28.44

Mason City            73.86   25.88    72.99   24.88

Springboro City       73.04   26.71    69.39   28.79

Clear Creek Township  75.77   23.87    72.62   24.54

Deerfield Township    71.19   28.49    71.77   26.11

Hamilton Township     74.55   25.11    72.17   25.35




There was a dramatic increase in voter registration since the primary election of March 2, 2004, as described in my previous paper, “Voter Turnout in Warren County.”  These cities and townships were no exceptions:



VOTER REGISTRATION:  11/07/00 03/02/04 11/02/04

 

Lebanon City            8,795   10,026   11,641

Mason City             13,899   16,728   19,221

Springboro City         8,139    9,220   10,447

Clear Creek Township    6,177    7,121    8,145

Deerfield Township     16,359   18,144   21,220 

Hamilton Township       5,967    8,426   10,681




Thus, in the four years since the 2000 presidential election, these six cities and townships added 22,019 new voters to the rolls: 10,329 in the first 40 months, and 11,690 in the last 8 months.  This is entirely possible in a fast-growing county.  Only a careful examination and comparison of the voter rolls and registration forms can determine its legitimacy.



CLERMONT COUNTY



The best way to illustrate what happened in Clermont County is to begin by presenting two tables, showing very different voting patterns in two townships.



Tate Township

 

   Registered Voters   Turnout

   2000  2004 Change  2000 2004 Bush Kerry  Bush Gore

 

A   502   517 + 2.9%  68.7 72.9  270  105   226  109

B   401   411 + 2.5%  51.1 58.9  167   71   131   69

C   451   480 + 6.4%  69.4 76.3  263   93   226   76

D   458   512 +11.8%  68.3 74.2  272  102   217   87

E   309   313 + 1.3%  70.2 77.3  169   68   131   82

F   353   370 + 4.8%  61.8 72.7  211   56   146   68

G   394   459 +16.5%  73.4 78.9  271   88   221   61

H   707   772 + 9.2%  65.6 76.0  415  167   320  129

I   403   423 + 5.0%  62.3 72.1  201   99   172   71

   3978  4257 + 7.0%  65.7 73.5 2239  849  1790  752




Every precinct in Tate Township reported a modest increase in voter registration, quite in line with the 10.2% increase county wide.  It was the voter turnout, up by 7.8%, which translated into a big win for Bush.  Excluding third-party candidates, there were 546 more votes cast for president in 2004 than in 2000.  Bush got 449 of them, and Kerry got 97.



Batavia Township

   Registered Voters   Turnout

   2000  2004 Change  2000 2004 Bush Kerry  Bush Gore

 

A    987  1263 +28.0% 59.3 66.3  594  232   412  161

B    560  1038 +85.4% 61.3 63.7  422  233   217  122

C    901   993 +10.2% 54.3 66.9  466  190   321  157

D    828  1061 +28.1% 66.2 70.8  557  189   385  157

E    559   937 +67.6% 53.1 70.4  452  202   170  112

F    444   503 +13.3% 56.8 72.6  247  115   141  103

G    702   930 +32.5% 64.0 72.3  451  214   298  136

H    468   583 +24.6% 71.6 79.6  337  121   233   92

I    567   287 -49.4% 44.6 81.2  180   52   167   79

J    679   938 +38.1% 69.5 76.9  516  195   325  134

K   1006  1269 +26.1% 60.7 68.4  645  215   431  166

L    675   592 -12.3% 59.1 63.0  222  149   232  164

    8376 10394 +24.1% 59.9 69.9 5089 2107  3332 1583




In Batavia Township the voter registration rates are unbelievable.  The increase is said to be 24.1% for the entire township, compared to 9.1% elsewhere in the county.  The increases range as high as 67.6% in Precinct E, where 378 new voters were registered.  It appears that nearly all of them voted.  Turnout is said to have increased by 17.3%.  Excluding third-party candidates, there were 372 more votes cast for president in 2004 than in 2000 in Precinct E alone.  Bush got 282 of them, and Kerry got 90.  On the other hand, decreases in voter registration rates range as high as 49.4% in Precinct I, where 280 voters were lost from the rolls.  Nearly all the 313 people who failed to vote in 2000 either died or moved away.  And yet, miraculously, excluding third-party candidates, only 14 fewer votes were cast for president in 2004 than in 2000.  Bush managed to gain 13 votes in Precinct I, while the Democrats lost 27, ostensibly because voter turnout increased by 36.6%.  There are 23 such precincts in Clermont County, where turnout was up, but Kerry got fewer votes than Gore.



I do not believe these numbers.  They call into question both the voter registration data and the turnout data for all of Clermont County, and the validity of the vote count itself.



These three counties between them, Butler, Warren, and Clermont, provided nearly all of George W. Bush’s lead on election night.  They also provided, by far, his three largest majorities, and the three largest increases in Bush’s margin of victory among any of the 72 counties that he won.  The election results in Butler, Warren, and Clermont counties should be challenged, for they call into question the results for the entire State of Ohio.