27 April 2014

I give my heartfelt thanks to Brian Julin for producing the spreadsheets and the tables of data that made it possible for me to write this report in a timely manner.

This is the fourth in a series of reports on uncounted votes in urban counties of Ohio.  These are ballots cast but not counted because they were regarded as “undervotes” and “overvotes,” or “blank” and “void,” as they are known in New York State.  The true number of such votes can be easily determined by subtracting votes counted from total ballots cast.

Shortly after the election I obtained from the website of the Ohio Secretary of State the data I needed to make a statewide compilation on a county by county basis of the uncounted votes, exclusive of provisional ballots.  These data have since been taken down from said website.  I present them here.

Cuyahoga County


 

Registered Voters     1,005,807

Ballots Cast            665,334

Votes Counted           652,381

Votes Uncounted          12,953

Provisional Ballots      24,788

 

John F. Kerry           433,262

George W. Bush          215,624

Other candidates          3,495

 

Thus, according to the Ohio Secretary of State’s own data, the countywide percentage of uncounted votes, exclusive of provisional ballots, was 1.95%.


                  


The Cuyahoga County Board of Elections has posted its official precinct canvass records dated November 30, 2004.  The official results are presented here:

Cuyahoga County


 

Registered Voters     1,005,807

Ballots Cast            687,260

Votes Counted           673,729

Votes Uncounted          13,531

 

John F. Kerry           448,486

George W. Bush          221,606

Other candidates          3,637

 

There are still 13,531 uncounted votes in Cuyahoga County.  Presumably 578 are provisional ballots, and the other 12,953 are the regular ballots that went uncounted on Election Day.

From the Cuyahoga County canvass records I have compiled the following table, presenting separate data for the vote totals, counted and uncounted, for Cleveland, the suburbs, regular ballots, and absentee ballots:

Cuyahoga County


 

Breakdown  Ballots Cast   Uncounted    Bush   Kerry

 

CLEVELAND      172,160   4,708 2.73%  26,435 139,580

SUBURBS        515,100   8,823 1.71% 195,171 308,906

REGULAR        602,048  10,701 1.78% 192,518 395,543

ABSENTEE        85,212   2,830 3.32%  29,088  52,943

TOTAL          687,260  13,531 1.97% 221,606 448,486

 

As shown in the table above, 34.79% of the uncounted votes are in Cleveland, which Kerry won with 83.36% of the vote to 15.79% for Bush.  The percentage of uncounted votes in Cleveland, 2.73%, is much higher than the county wide percentage of 1.97%, but lower than the surprisingly high percentage of uncounted absentee ballots, 3.32%.

I had Brian Julin prepare a table of precincts sorted according to their percentage of uncounted ballots.  Here are the results for the City of Cleveland:

PRECINCTS WITH 4.0% OR MORE UNCOUNTED BALLOTS

 

Precinct   Ballots Cast  Uncounted  Bush  Kerry

 

CLEVELAND 6-M       467  90 19.27%     9   367

CLEVELAND 8-I       328  41 12.50%     8   251

CLEVELAND 13-H       95  10 10.52%    10    71

CLEVELAND 5-F       464  45  9.70%     4   415

CLEVELAND 6-J       313  28  8.95%     9   276

CLEVELAND 15-I      303  24  7.92%    85   188

CLEVELAND 1-D       439  33  7.52%    14   391

CLEVELAND 6-D       145  10  6.90%     5   130

CLEVELAND 13-X      406  27  6.65%     8   333

CLEVELAND 11-R      373  23  6.17%    44   304

CLEVELAND 9-M       504  31  6.15%    15   458

CLEVELAND 14-F      299  18  6.02%    69   211

CLEVELAND 7-A       511  30  5.87%    20   460

CLEVELAND 9-R       430  25  5.81%    12   392

CLEVELAND 13-A      417  24  5.75%    44   347

CLEVELAND 7-U       472  27  5.72%    22   421

CLEVELAND 12-L      404  23  5.69%    56   323

CLEVELAND 17-N      311  17  5.47%    53   238

CLEVELAND 4-O       484  26  5.37%    13   439

CLEVELAND 6-U       354  19  5.37%    11   324

CLEVELAND 2-K       396  21  5.30%    10   365

CLEVELAND 14-J      379  20  5.28%    92   266

CLEVELAND 8-L       213  11  5.16%    19   182

CLEVELAND 4-F       563  29  5.15%    20   299

CLEVELAND 5-A       626  32  5.11%    28   556

CLEVELAND 4-G       431  22  5.10%    12   395

CLEVELAND 7-F       299  15  5.02%    10   274

CLEVELAND 5-K       419  21  5.01%    15   382

CLEVELAND 5-U        20   1  5.00%     0    19

CLEVELAND 3-K       397  19  4.79%     8   370

CLEVELAND 16-A      379  18  4.75%    95   266

CLEVELAND 6-W       128   6  4.69%     8   113

CLEVELAND 7-J       432  20  4.63%    13   397

CLEVELAND 4-B       326  15  4.60%    21   389

CLEVELAND 3-D       567  26  4.59%    20   521

CLEVELAND 14-E      330  15  4.55%    75   239

CLEVELAND 2-P       441  20  4.54%    11   407

CLEVELAND 10-Q      441  20  4.54%    10   398

CLEVELAND 1-S       443  20  4.51%    17   401

CLEVELAND 6-K       201   9  4.48%    27   165

CLEVELAND 2-F       380  17  4.47%    21   342

CLEVELAND 8-Q       562  25  4.45%    15   521

CLEVELAND 11-B      540  24  4.44%    52   463

CLEVELAND 6-G       451  20  4.43%    15   415

CLEVELAND 5-L       249  11  4.42%     9   229

CLEVELAND 8-B       569  25  4.39%    23   520

CLEVELAND 10-J      388  17  4.38%    44   327

CLEVELAND 7-I       343  15  4.37%    11   317

CLEVELAND 5-G       482  21  4.36%    14   447

CLEVELAND 5-E       392  17  4.34%     6   369

CLEVELAND 2-A       324  14  4.32%    18   292

CLEVELAND 14-O      304  13  4.28%    54   233

CLEVELAND 11-O      400  17  4.25%    42   329

CLEVELAND 2-O       546  23  4.21%    19   500

CLEVELAND 11-U      285  12  4.21%    25   247

CLEVELAND 17-B      409  17  4.16%    89   302

CLEVELAND 8-R       434  18  4.15%     6   409

CLEVELAND 17-L      316  13  4.11%    46   256

CLEVELAND 8-D       439  18  4.10%    25   394

CLEVELAND 10-N      415  17  4.10%    16   382

CLEVELAND 7-T       415  17  4.10%    19   377

CLEVELAND 9-N       464  19  4.09%    16   427

CLEVELAND 8-E       320  13  4.06%     8   299

CLEVELAND 6-L       425  17  4.00%    82   325

CLEVELAND 14-T      375  15  4.00%    71   286

 

In Cleveland there are 12 precincts with more than


6% of the ballots uncounted.  These account for 380 uncounted votes, 8.07% of the city wide total, and 9.19% of the total ballots cast in these 12 precincts.  John Kerry won them all overwhelmingly,

by a margin of 12 to 1 in the aggregate.  There are 29 precincts with 5% or more of the ballots uncounted.  These account for 743 uncounted votes, 15.78% of the city wide total, and 6.84% of the total ballots cast in these 29 precincts.  John Kerry won them all overwhelmingly, by a margin of 12 to 1 in the aggregate.  There are 65 precincts with 4% or more of the ballots uncounted.  These account for 1,366 uncounted votes, 29.01% of the city wide total, and 5.43% of the total ballots cast in these 65 precincts.  John Kerry won them all overwhelmingly, by a margin of 12 to 1 in the aggregate.

Elsewhere in Cuyahoga County there are 19 precincts with more than 4% of the ballots uncounted.  These account for 383 uncounted votes, or 5.63% of the total ballots cast in these precincts.  John Kerry won 17 of these precincts, 16 of them by overwhelming margins, 8 to 1 in the aggregate, and he ran nearly even with Bush, 585 to 589, in the other three.

PRECINCTS WITH 4.0% OR MORE UNCOUNTED BALLOTS

 

Precinct   Ballots Cast  Uncounted  Bush  Kerry

 

BEACHWOOD J         309  34 11.00%    53   222

EUCLID 3-C          448  45 10.04%    98   211

STRONGSVILLE 1-J     31   3  9.68%    13    15

EUCLID 4-D          595  41  6.89%    29   523

NORTH ROYALTON 3-A  524  34  6.49%   246   200

NORTH ROYALTON 5-B  444  25  5.63%   213   205

EAST CLEVELAND 2-D  273  15  5.49%     9   248

EUCLID 3-A           76   4  5.26%    22    37

EAST CLEVELAND 2-F  423  21  4.96%    23   379

GARFIELD HTS 1-B     61   3  4.92%     3    54

EAST CLEVELAND 4-D  469  23  4.90%    60   384

SOUTH EUCLID 1-D    535  24  4.49%    48   462

EAST CLEVELAND 3-A  388  17  4.38%    13   358

EAST CLEVELAND 2-C  368  16  4.35%    14   337

LAKEWOOD 3-E        351  15  4.27%    88   246

PARMA 9-J           328  14  4.27%   130   181

EAST CLEVELAND 3-F  379  16  4.22%     9   354

BEDFORD HTS 2-C     436  18  4.13%    28   389

EAST CLEVELAND 2-B  364  15  4.12%     9   339

 

Brian Julin provides this analysis:  “Without considering ballot order (rotation) problems, which are obvious in several precincts as there are aberrant third party votes, and which may be less than obvious in collocated precincts where Bush and Kerry votes were swapped, if all undervotes were allocated in proportion to votes that were validly counted, Kerry would pick up approximately 7935 votes and Bush would pick up approximately 2675."