26 November 2014

I give my heartfelt thanks to Brian Julin for producing the spreadsheets and the tables of data that made it possible for me to write this report in a timely manner.

This is the fourth in a series of reports on uncounted votes in urban counties of Ohio.  These are ballots cast but not counted because they were regarded as “undervotes” and “overvotes,” or “blank” and “void,” as they are known in New York State.  The true number of such votes can be easily determined by subtracting votes counted from total ballots cast.

Shortly after the election I obtained from the website of the Ohio Secretary of State the data I needed to make a statewide compilation on a county by county basis of the uncounted votes, exclusive of provisional ballots.  These data have since been taken down from said website.  I present them here.

Cuyahoga County

 
Registered Voters     1,005,807
Ballots Cast            665,334
Votes Counted           652,381
Votes Uncounted          12,953
Provisional Ballots      24,788
 
John F. Kerry           433,262
George W. Bush          215,624
Other candidates          3,495
 
Thus, according to the Ohio Secretary of State’s own data, the countywide percentage of uncounted votes, exclusive of provisional ballots, was 1.95%.

                  

The Cuyahoga County Board of Elections has posted its official precinct canvass records dated November 30, 2004.  The official results are presented here:

Cuyahoga County

 
Registered Voters     1,005,807
Ballots Cast            687,260
Votes Counted           673,729
Votes Uncounted          13,531
 
John F. Kerry           448,486
George W. Bush          221,606
Other candidates          3,637
 
There are still 13,531 uncounted votes in Cuyahoga County.  Presumably 578 are provisional ballots, and the other 12,953 are the regular ballots that went uncounted on Election Day.

From the Cuyahoga County canvass records I have compiled the following table, presenting separate data for the vote totals, counted and uncounted, for Cleveland, the suburbs, regular ballots, and absentee ballots:

Cuyahoga County

 
Breakdown  Ballots Cast   Uncounted    Bush   Kerry
 
CLEVELAND      172,160   4,708 2.73%  26,435 139,580
SUBURBS        515,100   8,823 1.71% 195,171 308,906
REGULAR        602,048  10,701 1.78% 192,518 395,543
ABSENTEE        85,212   2,830 3.32%  29,088  52,943
TOTAL          687,260  13,531 1.97% 221,606 448,486
 
As shown in the table above, 34.79% of the uncounted votes are in Cleveland, which Kerry won with 83.36% of the vote to 15.79% for Bush.  The percentage of uncounted votes in Cleveland, 2.73%, is much higher than the county wide percentage of 1.97%, but lower than the surprisingly high percentage of uncounted absentee ballots, 3.32%.

I had Brian Julin prepare a table of precincts sorted according to their percentage of uncounted ballots.  Here are the results for the City of Cleveland:

PRECINCTS WITH 4.0% OR MORE UNCOUNTED BALLOTS
 
Precinct   Ballots Cast  Uncounted  Bush  Kerry
 
CLEVELAND 6-M       467  90 19.27%     9   367
CLEVELAND 8-I       328  41 12.50%     8   251
CLEVELAND 13-H       95  10 10.52%    10    71
CLEVELAND 5-F       464  45  9.70%     4   415
CLEVELAND 6-J       313  28  8.95%     9   276
CLEVELAND 15-I      303  24  7.92%    85   188
CLEVELAND 1-D       439  33  7.52%    14   391
CLEVELAND 6-D       145  10  6.90%     5   130
CLEVELAND 13-X      406  27  6.65%     8   333
CLEVELAND 11-R      373  23  6.17%    44   304
CLEVELAND 9-M       504  31  6.15%    15   458
CLEVELAND 14-F      299  18  6.02%    69   211
CLEVELAND 7-A       511  30  5.87%    20   460
CLEVELAND 9-R       430  25  5.81%    12   392
CLEVELAND 13-A      417  24  5.75%    44   347
CLEVELAND 7-U       472  27  5.72%    22   421
CLEVELAND 12-L      404  23  5.69%    56   323
CLEVELAND 17-N      311  17  5.47%    53   238
CLEVELAND 4-O       484  26  5.37%    13   439
CLEVELAND 6-U       354  19  5.37%    11   324
CLEVELAND 2-K       396  21  5.30%    10   365
CLEVELAND 14-J      379  20  5.28%    92   266
CLEVELAND 8-L       213  11  5.16%    19   182
CLEVELAND 4-F       563  29  5.15%    20   299
CLEVELAND 5-A       626  32  5.11%    28   556
CLEVELAND 4-G       431  22  5.10%    12   395
CLEVELAND 7-F       299  15  5.02%    10   274
CLEVELAND 5-K       419  21  5.01%    15   382
CLEVELAND 5-U        20   1  5.00%     0    19
CLEVELAND 3-K       397  19  4.79%     8   370
CLEVELAND 16-A      379  18  4.75%    95   266
CLEVELAND 6-W       128   6  4.69%     8   113
CLEVELAND 7-J       432  20  4.63%    13   397
CLEVELAND 4-B       326  15  4.60%    21   389
CLEVELAND 3-D       567  26  4.59%    20   521
CLEVELAND 14-E      330  15  4.55%    75   239
CLEVELAND 2-P       441  20  4.54%    11   407
CLEVELAND 10-Q      441  20  4.54%    10   398
CLEVELAND 1-S       443  20  4.51%    17   401
CLEVELAND 6-K       201   9  4.48%    27   165
CLEVELAND 2-F       380  17  4.47%    21   342
CLEVELAND 8-Q       562  25  4.45%    15   521
CLEVELAND 11-B      540  24  4.44%    52   463
CLEVELAND 6-G       451  20  4.43%    15   415
CLEVELAND 5-L       249  11  4.42%     9   229
CLEVELAND 8-B       569  25  4.39%    23   520
CLEVELAND 10-J      388  17  4.38%    44   327
CLEVELAND 7-I       343  15  4.37%    11   317
CLEVELAND 5-G       482  21  4.36%    14   447
CLEVELAND 5-E       392  17  4.34%     6   369
CLEVELAND 2-A       324  14  4.32%    18   292
CLEVELAND 14-O      304  13  4.28%    54   233
CLEVELAND 11-O      400  17  4.25%    42   329
CLEVELAND 2-O       546  23  4.21%    19   500
CLEVELAND 11-U      285  12  4.21%    25   247
CLEVELAND 17-B      409  17  4.16%    89   302
CLEVELAND 8-R       434  18  4.15%     6   409
CLEVELAND 17-L      316  13  4.11%    46   256
CLEVELAND 8-D       439  18  4.10%    25   394
CLEVELAND 10-N      415  17  4.10%    16   382
CLEVELAND 7-T       415  17  4.10%    19   377
CLEVELAND 9-N       464  19  4.09%    16   427
CLEVELAND 8-E       320  13  4.06%     8   299
CLEVELAND 6-L       425  17  4.00%    82   325
CLEVELAND 14-T      375  15  4.00%    71   286
 
In Cleveland there are 12 precincts with more than

6% of the ballots uncounted.  These account for 380 uncounted votes, 8.07% of the city wide total, and 9.19% of the total ballots cast in these 12 precincts.  John Kerry won them all overwhelmingly,

by a margin of 12 to 1 in the aggregate.  There are 29 precincts with 5% or more of the ballots uncounted.  These account for 743 uncounted votes, 15.78% of the city wide total, and 6.84% of the total ballots cast in these 29 precincts.  John Kerry won them all overwhelmingly, by a margin of 12 to 1 in the aggregate.  There are 65 precincts with 4% or more of the ballots uncounted.  These account for 1,366 uncounted votes, 29.01% of the city wide total, and 5.43% of the total ballots cast in these 65 precincts.  John Kerry won them all overwhelmingly, by a margin of 12 to 1 in the aggregate.

Elsewhere in Cuyahoga County there are 19 precincts with more than 4% of the ballots uncounted.  These account for 383 uncounted votes, or 5.63% of the total ballots cast in these precincts.  John Kerry won 17 of these precincts, 16 of them by overwhelming margins, 8 to 1 in the aggregate, and he ran nearly even with Bush, 585 to 589, in the other three.

PRECINCTS WITH 4.0% OR MORE UNCOUNTED BALLOTS
 
Precinct   Ballots Cast  Uncounted  Bush  Kerry
 
BEACHWOOD J         309  34 11.00%    53   222
EUCLID 3-C          448  45 10.04%    98   211
STRONGSVILLE 1-J     31   3  9.68%    13    15
EUCLID 4-D          595  41  6.89%    29   523
NORTH ROYALTON 3-A  524  34  6.49%   246   200
NORTH ROYALTON 5-B  444  25  5.63%   213   205
EAST CLEVELAND 2-D  273  15  5.49%     9   248
EUCLID 3-A           76   4  5.26%    22    37
EAST CLEVELAND 2-F  423  21  4.96%    23   379
GARFIELD HTS 1-B     61   3  4.92%     3    54
EAST CLEVELAND 4-D  469  23  4.90%    60   384
SOUTH EUCLID 1-D    535  24  4.49%    48   462
EAST CLEVELAND 3-A  388  17  4.38%    13   358
EAST CLEVELAND 2-C  368  16  4.35%    14   337
LAKEWOOD 3-E        351  15  4.27%    88   246
PARMA 9-J           328  14  4.27%   130   181
EAST CLEVELAND 3-F  379  16  4.22%     9   354
BEDFORD HTS 2-C     436  18  4.13%    28   389
EAST CLEVELAND 2-B  364  15  4.12%     9   339
 
Brian Julin provides this analysis:  “Without considering ballot order (rotation) problems, which are obvious in several precincts as there are aberrant third party votes, and which may be less than obvious in collocated precincts where Bush and Kerry votes were swapped, if all undervotes were allocated in proportion to votes that were validly counted, Kerry would pick up approximately 7935 votes and Bush would pick up approximately 2675."