17 October 2014

I give my heartfelt thanks to Roman Sasik for producing, from a poor facsimile, the tables of data that made it possible for me to write this report in a timely manner.

This is the fifth in a series of reports on uncounted votes in urban counties of Ohio.  These are ballots cast but not counted because they were regarded as “undervotes” and “overvotes,” or “blank” and “void,” as they are known in New York State.  The true number of such votes can be easily determined by subtracting votes counted from total ballots cast.

Shortly after the election I obtained from the website of the Ohio Secretary of State the data I needed to make a statewide compilation on a county by county basis of the uncounted votes, exclusive of provisional ballots.  These data have since been taken down from said website.  I present them here.

Summit County

Registered Voters       368,858
Ballots Cast            275,551
Votes Counted           270,244
Votes Uncounted           5,307
Provisional Ballots       5,932
 
John F. Kerry           152,897
George W. Bush          116,184
Other candidates          1,163

Thus, according to the Ohio Secretary of State’s own data, the countywide percentage of uncounted votes, exclusive of provisional ballots, was 1.93%.

The Summit County Board of Elections has provided its official precinct canvass records dated December 1, 2004.  The official results are presented here:

Summit County
 
Registered Voters       368,858
Ballots Cast            281,735
Votes Counted           276,296
Votes Uncounted           5,439
 
John F. Kerry           156,578
George W. Bush          118,553
Other candidates          1,165

There are still 5,439 uncounted votes in Summit County.  Presumably 132 are provisional ballots, and the other 5,307 are the regular ballots that went uncounted on Election Day.

From the Summit County canvass records I have compiled the following table, presenting separate data for the vote totals, counted and uncounted, for Akron and the suburbs.  The Board of Elections has not provided a separate total for absentee ballots.

Summit County

Breakdown  Ballots Cast   Uncounted    Bush   Kerry
 
AKRON           94,364   2,650 2.81%  26,425  64,873
SUBURBS        187,371   2,789 1.49%  92,128  91,705
TOTAL          281,735   5,439 1.93% 118,553 156,578

As shown in the table above, 48.72% of the uncounted votes are in Akron, which Kerry won with 68.75% of the vote to 28.00% for Bush.  The percentage of uncounted votes in Akron, 2.81%, is much higher than the county wide percentage of 1.93%, and nearly twice as high as the percentage for the suburbs, 1.49%.  Note that Kerry’s county wide margin of victory came entirely from the City of Akron.

I had Roman Sasik prepare a table of precincts sorted according to their percentage of uncounted ballots.  Here are the results for the City of Akron:

PRECINCTS WITH 3.0% OR MORE UNCOUNTED BALLOTS
 
Precinct   Ballots Cast  Uncounted  Bush  Kerry
 
AKRON 7-J           594  80 13.47%   129   383
AKRON 3-H           555  57 10.27%    38   459
AKRON 5-K           624  56  8.97%    71   494
AKRON 3-C           647  54  8.35%    34   559
AKRON 3-M           627  52  8.29%    86   485
AKRON 5-F           585  42  7.18%    75   462
AKRON 4-Q           636  44  6.92%    26   565
AKRON 4-G           567  39  6.88%    40   487
AKRON 4-B           601  40  6.66%    28   531
AKRON 3-K           590  39  6.61%    33   518
AKRON 10-E          491  31  6.31%    92   366
AKRON 5-D           616  38  6.17%    51   526
AKRON 4-D           641  37  5.77%    40   563
AKRON 5-I           669  38  5.68%    38   588
AKRON 1-Q           613  34  5.55%   178   400
AKRON 3-L           681  37  5.43%    34   608
AKRON 4-L           578  31  5.36%   124   417
AKRON 1-B           597  32  5.36%   157   405
AKRON 1-G           589  30  5.09%   193   366
AKRON 3-I           651  32  4.92%    32   585
AKRON 5-A           513  25  4.87%    77   408
AKRON 3-F           621  30  4.83%    60   531
AKRON 7-A           580  28  4.83%   155   392
AKRON 3-E           627  30  4.78%    81   513
AKRON 4-I           619  29  4.68%    77   511
AKRON 3-A           639  28  4.38%    32   578
AKRON 3-N           617  26  4.21%    77   512
AKRON 5-E           570  24  4.21%    59   483
AKRON 10-F          552  22  3.99%   134   391
AKRON 2-E           628  25  3.98%   151   449
AKRON 10-M          642  25  3.89%   157   459
AKRON 2-J           567  22  3.88%   207   337
AKRON 4-P           597  23  3.85%    21   553
AKRON 8-K           775  29  3.74%   210   533
AKRON 2-B           550  20  3.64%   163   363
AKRON 4-F           642  23  3.58%    29   586
AKRON 7-B           615  22  3.58%   218   367
AKRON 10-C          562  20  3.56%    98   443
AKRON 5-B           741  26  3.51%    66   646
AKRON 5-H           543  19  3.50%    70   453
AKRON 8-P           660  23  3.48%   264   372
AKRON 10-B          633  22  3.48%   222   387
AKRON 5-J           640  22  3.44%    72   546
AKRON 5-L           646  22  3.41%    28   595
AKRON 4-M           649  22  3.39%    25   600
AKRON 3-D           623  21  3.37%    67   535
AKRON 1-L           625  21  3.36%   183   416
AKRON 10-J          573  19  3.32%   185   366
AKRON 4-O           640  21  3.28%    35   583
AKRON 9-E           633  20  3.16%   242   367
AKRON 4-J           608  19  3.13%   110   478
AKRON 9-H           644  20  3.11%   239   382
AKRON 9-M           615  19  3.09%   183   413
AKRON 7-H           594  18  3.03%   140   434
 
In Akron there are 12 precincts with more than 6% of the ballots uncounted.  These account for 572 uncounted votes, 10.52% of the county wide total, and 8.02% of the total ballots cast in these 12 precincts.  John Kerry won them all overwhelmingly, by a margin of 8 to 1 in the aggregate.  There are 28 precincts with 4% or more of the ballots uncounted.  These account for 1,063 uncounted votes, 19.54% of the county wide total, and 6.28% of the total ballots cast in these 28 precincts.  John Kerry won them all overwhelmingly, by a margin of 6.5 to 1 in the aggregate.  There are 54 precincts with more than 3% of the ballots uncounted.  These account for 1,628 uncounted votes, 29.93% of the county wide total, and 4.91% of the total ballots cast in these 54 precincts.  John Kerry won them all, by a margin of 4.5 to 1 in the aggregate.

Elsewhere in Summit County there are 17 precincts with more than 3% of the ballots uncounted.  These account for 406 uncounted votes, 7.46% of the county wide total, and 4.46% of the total ballots cast in these precincts.  John Kerry won all but one of these 17 precincts, by 5271 votes to 3240 for Bush.

This seems highly suspicious to me.  This is not the inner city.  All the standard explanations for the prevalence of spoiled ballots – voters are unsophisticated, inexperienced, or just plain ignorant – must fall by the wayside here.  Bush narrowly carried the suburbs, by 423 votes over Kerry, and yet 16 of the 17 precincts with the highest percentage of uncounted votes were won by Kerry.  This defies statistical probability, and cries out for an examination of the uncounted punch cards and the machines that failed to count them.

PRECINCTS WITH 3.0% OR MORE UNCOUNTED BALLOTS
 
Precinct   Ballots Cast  Uncounted  Bush  Kerry
 
SAGAMORE HILLS H     37   5 13.51%     7    25
TALLMADGE 1-D       530  49  9.25%   212   269
TWINSBURG TWP B     545  37  6.79%    44   463
BARBERTON 4-B       576  38  6.60%   191   345
BARBERTON 3-A       588  38  6.46%   160   389
SPRINGFIELD HLS L   533  30  5.63%   175   324
NORTHFIELD VILL B   430  18  4.19%   178   233
BARBERTON 4-A       558  22  3.94%   161   366
CUY FALLS 7-C       464  17  3.66%   174   271
LAKEMORE VILL B     648  23  3.55%   250   373
BARBERTON 5-B       540  18  3.33%   198   323
COVENTRY A          760  25  3.29%   313   420
TWINSBURG 2-B       605  19  3.14%   266   311
TALLMADGE 4-D       638  20  3.13%   273   344
NORTON 4-A          652  16  3.13%   266   228
BARBERTON 1-D       513  16  3.12%   178   317
SPRINGFIELD HLS K   482  15  3.11%   194   270