27 April 2014

I give my heartfelt thanks to Coleen Christensen for producing the spreadsheets and to Roman Sasik for producing the tables of data that made it possible for me to write this report in a timely manner.


Three days ago I produced a report entitled “Uncounted Votes in Montgomery County.”  These are ballots cast but not counted because they were regarded as “undervotes” and “overvotes,” or “blank” and “void,” as they are known in New York State.  The true number of such votes can be easily determined by subtracting votes counted from total ballots cast.



I was shocked to learn of 47 precincts in Montgomery County where the percentage of uncounted ballots is 4.0% or more, and that every single one of those precincts was won by John Kerry, nearly all of them by overwhelming margins, 7 to 1 in the aggregate.



I resolved to apply the same analytical technique to other Ohio counties, beginning with Hamilton County.


Shortly after the election I obtained from the website of the Ohio Secretary of State the data I needed to make a statewide compilation on a county by county basis of the uncounted votes, exclusive of provisional ballots.  These data have since been taken down from said website.  I present them here.

Hamilton County



Registered Voters       573,612

Ballots Cast            418,001

Votes Counted           408,238

Votes Uncounted           9,763

Provisional Ballots      14,386

 

George W. Bush          215,639

John F. Kerry           190,956

Other candidates          1,643

 

Thus, according to the Ohio Secretary of State’s own data, the countywide percentage of uncounted votes, exclusive of provisional ballots, was 2.34%.



The Hamilton County Board of Elections has provided its unofficial precinct canvass records dated November 2, 2004.  These do not include the counting of provisional ballots.  From these records I derived the following table, presenting separate data for the vote totals, counted and uncounted, for Cincinnati, the suburbs, regular ballots, and absentee ballots:



Hamilton County



Breakdown  Ballots Cast  Uncounted     Bush   Kerry

 

CITY -376-     142,867  4515  3.16%   43,636  94,052

REGULAR        375,828  8743  2.33%  192,813 172,794

ABSENTEE        42,173  1020  2.42%   22,826  18,162

SUBURBS -637-  232,961  4228  1.81%  149,177  78,742

TOTAL -1013-   418,001  9763  2.34%  215,639 190,956

 

There are more uncounted votes in the 376 precincts of Cincinnati, which Kerry won with 67.98% of the vote to 31.54% for Bush, than in the 637 precincts of the suburbs, which Bush won with 65.22% of the vote to 34.43% for Kerry.  And the percentage of uncounted votes in Cincinnati, 3.16% citywide, is much higher than the percentage of 1.81% elsewhere in the county.



I had Roman Sasik prepare a table of precincts sorted according to their percentage of uncounted ballots.  Here are the results for Cincinnati:



PRECINCTS WITH 4.0% OR MORE UNCOUNTED BALLOTS

 

Precinct   Ballots Cast  Uncounted    Bush  Kerry

 

CINCINNATI 17-A    168   32  19.05%     4    130

CINCINNATI 24-E    283   40  14.13%    49    193

CINCINNATI 26-D    302   39  12.91%    31    232

CINCINNATI 13-E    400   50  12.50%    18    329

CINCINNATI 24-J    408   49  12.01%    19    339

CINCINNATI 21-D    277   33  11.91%    62    182

CINCINNATI 22-C    341   39  11.44%    11    291

CINCINNATI 10-C    224   25  11.16%    27    171

CINCINNATI 8-B     384   42  10.94%    19    323

CINCINNATI 7-F     425   41   9.65%    22    362

CINCINNATI 3-D     437   41   9.38%    26    369

CINCINNATI 23-V    414   38   9.18%    54    320

CINCINNATI 9-C     416   38   9.13%    18    360

CINCINNATI 9-H     367   33   8.99%    21    312

CINCINNATI 24-O    307   27   8.79%    11    269

CINCINNATI 26-X    450   39   8.67%    57    354

CINCINNATI 2-W     336   29   8.63%    56    250

CINCINNATI 3-I     408   35   8.58%    22    350

CINCINNATI 20-K    182   15   8.24%    37    130

CINCINNATI 13-D    504   41   8.13%    20    442

CINCINNATI 7-B     494   40   8.10%    43    411

CINCINNATI 7-P     287   23   8.01%    13    251

CINCINNATI 4-H     352   28   7.95%   152    172

CINCINNATI 17-F    343   26   7.58%     9    308

CINCINNATI 25-L    486   36   7.41%   214    232

CINCINNATI 2-C     338   25   7.40%    21    289

CINCINNATI 21-I    315   23   7.30%    40    249

CINCINNATI 25-B    353   25   7.08%   134    193

CINCINNATI 23-G    427   30   7.03%    80    316

CINCINNATI 26-N    386   27   6.99%   102    256

CINCINNATI 7-K     433   30   6.93%    33    368

CINCINNATI 26-J    361   25   6.93%    92    243

CINCINNATI 15-P    394   27   6.85%    23    343

CINCINNATI 7-A     523   35   6.69%    35    452

CINCINNATI 10-D    314   21   6.69%    25    267

CINCINNATI 25-Q    318   21   6.60%   122    175

CINCINNATI 10-E    244   16   6.56%    20    207

CINCINNATI 18-C    285   18   6.32%     8    259

CINCINNATI 14-D    400   25   6.25%    38    336

CINCINNATI 18-B    309   19   6.15%    15    274

CINCINNATI 2-H     518   31   5.98%   139    345

CINCINNATI 11-F    219   13   5.94%    45    158

CINCINNATI 3-E     456   27   5.92%    16    411

CINCINNATI 23-B    305   18   5.90%    62    222

CINCINNATI 9-E     358   21   5.87%    29    307

CINCINNATI 26-O    413   24   5.81%    10    376

CINCINNATI 6-C     327   19   5.81%    26    282

CINCINNATI 21-E    327   19   5.81%    16    290

CINCINNATI 14-N    401   23   5.74%    84    294

CINCINNATI 12-B    322   18   5.59%    79    224

CINCINNATI 9-F     433   24   5.54%    15    394

CINCINNATI 12-G    228   12   5.26%    35    181

CINCINNATI 5-D     326   17   5.21%    51    255

CINCINNATI 15-D    353   18   5.10%    16    319

CINCINNATI 6-B     315   16   5.08%   127    170

CINCINNATI 24-F    395   20   5.06%    75    299

CINCINNATI 23-L    387   19   4.91%   178    187

CINCINNATI 5-L     245   12   4.90%    96    137

CINCINNATI 2-B     311   15   4.82%    39    253

CINCINNATI 22-B    334   16   4.79%    94    221

CINCINNATI 13-G    351   16   4.56%    29    305

CINCINNATI 6-F     417   19   4.56%    83    313

CINCINNATI 8-A     330   15   4.55%    14    301

CINCINNATI 16-A    552   25   4.53%    95    429

CINCINNATI 15-F    490   22   4.49%   140    324

CINCINNATI 22-D    471   21   4.46%    17    433

CINCINNATI 5-E     406   18   4.43%   103    281

CINCINNATI 23-Z    429   19   4.43%   262    147

CINCINNATI 8-F     362   16   4.42%    18    326

CINCINNATI 17-D    272   12   4.41%    18    240

CINCINNATI 26-E    391   17   4.35%    66    308

CINCINNATI 7-M     441   19   4.31%    19    401

CINCINNATI 6-D     396   17   4.29%    33    345

CINCINNATI 20-A    329   14   4.26%   108    206

CINCINNATI 7-D     496   21   4.23%    46    429

CINCINNATI 2-A     403   17   4.22%   117    267

CINCINNATI 7-G     429   18   4.20%    46    362

CINCINNATI 10-A    316   13   4.11%   150    153

CINCINNATI 18-D    122    5   4.10%     3    114

CINCINNATI 12-C    343   14   4.08%    41    284

CINCINNATI 18-A    320   13   4.06%     9    295

CINCINNATI 9-A     271   11   4.06%     8    250

CINCINNATI 21-K    272   11   4.04%    19    241

CINCINNATI 13-O    498   20   4.02%   101    374

CINCINNATI 14-K    249   10   4.02%    57    181

CINCINNATI 13-F    274   11   4.01%    16    247

The partisan distribution of uncounted ballots in Hamilton County is even more extreme than in Montgomery County.  In Cincinnati there are 22 precincts with more than 8% of the ballots uncounted.  These account for 789 uncounted votes, 17.48% of the total in the entire city, and 9.02% of the total in the entire county.  These uncounted votes amount to 10.10% of the total ballots cast in these 22 precincts.  John Kerry won them all overwhelmingly, by a margin of 10 to 1 in the aggregate.



There are 40 precincts with more than 6% of the ballots uncounted, 56 precincts with more than 5% of the ballots uncounted, and 86 precincts with more than 4% of the ballots uncounted.  These 86 precincts account for 2042 uncounted votes, 45.22% of the total in the entire city, and 23.35% of the total in the entire county.  These uncounted votes amount to 6.58% of the total ballots cast in these 86 precincts.  John Kerry won 85 of these precincts, and his margin in all 86 precincts was 5 to 1 in the aggregate.



Even outside of the City of Cincinnati the amount and distribution of uncounted votes is disturbing:



PRECINCTS WITH 6.0% OR MORE UNCOUNTED BALLOTS

 

Precinct   Ballots Cast  Uncounted    Bush  Kerry

 

LINCOLN HGTS C     239   25  10.46%    16    196

WOODLAWN C         456   46  10.09%    31    378

LINCOLN HGTS D     363   31   8.54%    13    318

SPRINGFIELD LL     360   29   8.06%    53    278

NORWOOD 4-D        362   27   7.46%   172    159

BLUE ASH 2-C       377   28   7.43%   120    229

FOREST PARK O      401   28   6.98%   110    263

MIAMI TWP H        247   17   6.88%   174     55

SPRINGFIELD GG     314   21   6.69%    29    264

COLERAIN HH        444   28   6.31%   222    190

SPRINGFIELD M      508   32   6.30%   216    257

ELMWOOD B          286   18   6.29%   150    117

NO COLL HILL 1-B   449   28   6.24%   258    163

COLUMBIA D         412   25   6.07%    35    352



Outside of Cincinnati there are 4 precincts with more than 8% of the ballots uncounted.  John Kerry won them all overwhelmingly, by a margin of 10 to 1 in the aggregate.  There are 10 other precincts with more than 6% of the ballots uncounted.  John Kerry won 5 of the 10, and the high rate of uncounted votes cannot be coincidental.  Woodlawn C was Kerry’s best precinct of 4 in the town.  Blue Ash 2-C was the only one of 14 precincts Kerry won in the town.  Columbia-D was Kerry’s best of 13 precincts in the town.