16 October 2014

I give my heartfelt thanks to Coleen Christensen for producing the spreadsheets and to Roman Sasik for producing the tables of data that made it possible for me to write this report in a timely manner.

Three days ago I produced a report entitled “Uncounted Votes in Montgomery County.”  These are ballots cast but not counted because they were regarded as “undervotes” and “overvotes,” or “blank” and “void,” as they are known in New York State.  The true number of such votes can be easily determined by subtracting votes counted from total ballots cast.

I was shocked to learn of 47 precincts in Montgomery County where the percentage of uncounted ballots is 4.0% or more, and that every single one of those precincts was won by John Kerry, nearly all of them by overwhelming margins, 7 to 1 in the aggregate.

I resolved to apply the same analytical technique to other Ohio counties, beginning with Hamilton County.

Shortly after the election I obtained from the website of the Ohio Secretary of State the data I needed to make a statewide compilation on a county by county basis of the uncounted votes, exclusive of provisional ballots.  These data have since been taken down from said website.  I present them here.

Hamilton County

Registered Voters       573,612
Ballots Cast            418,001
Votes Counted           408,238
Votes Uncounted           9,763
Provisional Ballots      14,386
 
George W. Bush          215,639
John F. Kerry           190,956
Other candidates          1,643
 
Thus, according to the Ohio Secretary of State’s own data, the countywide percentage of uncounted votes, exclusive of provisional ballots, was 2.34%.

The Hamilton County Board of Elections has provided its unofficial precinct canvass records dated November 2, 2004.  These do not include the counting of provisional ballots.  From these records I derived the following table, presenting separate data for the vote totals, counted and uncounted, for Cincinnati, the suburbs, regular ballots, and absentee ballots:

Hamilton County

Breakdown  Ballots Cast  Uncounted     Bush   Kerry
 
CITY -376-     142,867  4515  3.16%   43,636  94,052
REGULAR        375,828  8743  2.33%  192,813 172,794
ABSENTEE        42,173  1020  2.42%   22,826  18,162
SUBURBS -637-  232,961  4228  1.81%  149,177  78,742
TOTAL -1013-   418,001  9763  2.34%  215,639 190,956
 
There are more uncounted votes in the 376 precincts of Cincinnati, which Kerry won with 67.98% of the vote to 31.54% for Bush, than in the 637 precincts of the suburbs, which Bush won with 65.22% of the vote to 34.43% for Kerry.  And the percentage of uncounted votes in Cincinnati, 3.16% citywide, is much higher than the percentage of 1.81% elsewhere in the county.

I had Roman Sasik prepare a table of precincts sorted according to their percentage of uncounted ballots.  Here are the results for Cincinnati:

PRECINCTS WITH 4.0% OR MORE UNCOUNTED BALLOTS
 
Precinct   Ballots Cast  Uncounted    Bush  Kerry
 
CINCINNATI 17-A    168   32  19.05%     4    130
CINCINNATI 24-E    283   40  14.13%    49    193
CINCINNATI 26-D    302   39  12.91%    31    232
CINCINNATI 13-E    400   50  12.50%    18    329
CINCINNATI 24-J    408   49  12.01%    19    339
CINCINNATI 21-D    277   33  11.91%    62    182
CINCINNATI 22-C    341   39  11.44%    11    291
CINCINNATI 10-C    224   25  11.16%    27    171
CINCINNATI 8-B     384   42  10.94%    19    323
CINCINNATI 7-F     425   41   9.65%    22    362
CINCINNATI 3-D     437   41   9.38%    26    369
CINCINNATI 23-V    414   38   9.18%    54    320
CINCINNATI 9-C     416   38   9.13%    18    360
CINCINNATI 9-H     367   33   8.99%    21    312
CINCINNATI 24-O    307   27   8.79%    11    269
CINCINNATI 26-X    450   39   8.67%    57    354
CINCINNATI 2-W     336   29   8.63%    56    250
CINCINNATI 3-I     408   35   8.58%    22    350
CINCINNATI 20-K    182   15   8.24%    37    130
CINCINNATI 13-D    504   41   8.13%    20    442
CINCINNATI 7-B     494   40   8.10%    43    411
CINCINNATI 7-P     287   23   8.01%    13    251
CINCINNATI 4-H     352   28   7.95%   152    172
CINCINNATI 17-F    343   26   7.58%     9    308
CINCINNATI 25-L    486   36   7.41%   214    232
CINCINNATI 2-C     338   25   7.40%    21    289
CINCINNATI 21-I    315   23   7.30%    40    249
CINCINNATI 25-B    353   25   7.08%   134    193
CINCINNATI 23-G    427   30   7.03%    80    316
CINCINNATI 26-N    386   27   6.99%   102    256
CINCINNATI 7-K     433   30   6.93%    33    368
CINCINNATI 26-J    361   25   6.93%    92    243
CINCINNATI 15-P    394   27   6.85%    23    343
CINCINNATI 7-A     523   35   6.69%    35    452
CINCINNATI 10-D    314   21   6.69%    25    267
CINCINNATI 25-Q    318   21   6.60%   122    175
CINCINNATI 10-E    244   16   6.56%    20    207
CINCINNATI 18-C    285   18   6.32%     8    259
CINCINNATI 14-D    400   25   6.25%    38    336
CINCINNATI 18-B    309   19   6.15%    15    274
CINCINNATI 2-H     518   31   5.98%   139    345
CINCINNATI 11-F    219   13   5.94%    45    158
CINCINNATI 3-E     456   27   5.92%    16    411
CINCINNATI 23-B    305   18   5.90%    62    222
CINCINNATI 9-E     358   21   5.87%    29    307
CINCINNATI 26-O    413   24   5.81%    10    376
CINCINNATI 6-C     327   19   5.81%    26    282
CINCINNATI 21-E    327   19   5.81%    16    290
CINCINNATI 14-N    401   23   5.74%    84    294
CINCINNATI 12-B    322   18   5.59%    79    224
CINCINNATI 9-F     433   24   5.54%    15    394
CINCINNATI 12-G    228   12   5.26%    35    181
CINCINNATI 5-D     326   17   5.21%    51    255
CINCINNATI 15-D    353   18   5.10%    16    319
CINCINNATI 6-B     315   16   5.08%   127    170
CINCINNATI 24-F    395   20   5.06%    75    299
CINCINNATI 23-L    387   19   4.91%   178    187
CINCINNATI 5-L     245   12   4.90%    96    137
CINCINNATI 2-B     311   15   4.82%    39    253
CINCINNATI 22-B    334   16   4.79%    94    221
CINCINNATI 13-G    351   16   4.56%    29    305
CINCINNATI 6-F     417   19   4.56%    83    313
CINCINNATI 8-A     330   15   4.55%    14    301
CINCINNATI 16-A    552   25   4.53%    95    429
CINCINNATI 15-F    490   22   4.49%   140    324
CINCINNATI 22-D    471   21   4.46%    17    433
CINCINNATI 5-E     406   18   4.43%   103    281
CINCINNATI 23-Z    429   19   4.43%   262    147
CINCINNATI 8-F     362   16   4.42%    18    326
CINCINNATI 17-D    272   12   4.41%    18    240
CINCINNATI 26-E    391   17   4.35%    66    308
CINCINNATI 7-M     441   19   4.31%    19    401
CINCINNATI 6-D     396   17   4.29%    33    345
CINCINNATI 20-A    329   14   4.26%   108    206
CINCINNATI 7-D     496   21   4.23%    46    429
CINCINNATI 2-A     403   17   4.22%   117    267
CINCINNATI 7-G     429   18   4.20%    46    362
CINCINNATI 10-A    316   13   4.11%   150    153
CINCINNATI 18-D    122    5   4.10%     3    114
CINCINNATI 12-C    343   14   4.08%    41    284
CINCINNATI 18-A    320   13   4.06%     9    295
CINCINNATI 9-A     271   11   4.06%     8    250
CINCINNATI 21-K    272   11   4.04%    19    241
CINCINNATI 13-O    498   20   4.02%   101    374
CINCINNATI 14-K    249   10   4.02%    57    181
CINCINNATI 13-F    274   11   4.01%    16    247

The partisan distribution of uncounted ballots in Hamilton County is even more extreme than in Montgomery County.  In Cincinnati there are 22 precincts with more than 8% of the ballots uncounted.  These account for 789 uncounted votes, 17.48% of the total in the entire city, and 9.02% of the total in the entire county.  These uncounted votes amount to 10.10% of the total ballots cast in these 22 precincts.  John Kerry won them all overwhelmingly, by a margin of 10 to 1 in the aggregate.

There are 40 precincts with more than 6% of the ballots uncounted, 56 precincts with more than 5% of the ballots uncounted, and 86 precincts with more than 4% of the ballots uncounted.  These 86 precincts account for 2042 uncounted votes, 45.22% of the total in the entire city, and 23.35% of the total in the entire county.  These uncounted votes amount to 6.58% of the total ballots cast in these 86 precincts.  John Kerry won 85 of these precincts, and his margin in all 86 precincts was 5 to 1 in the aggregate.

Even outside of the City of Cincinnati the amount and distribution of uncounted votes is disturbing:

PRECINCTS WITH 6.0% OR MORE UNCOUNTED BALLOTS
 
Precinct   Ballots Cast  Uncounted    Bush  Kerry
 
LINCOLN HGTS C     239   25  10.46%    16    196
WOODLAWN C         456   46  10.09%    31    378
LINCOLN HGTS D     363   31   8.54%    13    318
SPRINGFIELD LL     360   29   8.06%    53    278
NORWOOD 4-D        362   27   7.46%   172    159
BLUE ASH 2-C       377   28   7.43%   120    229
FOREST PARK O      401   28   6.98%   110    263
MIAMI TWP H        247   17   6.88%   174     55
SPRINGFIELD GG     314   21   6.69%    29    264
COLERAIN HH        444   28   6.31%   222    190
SPRINGFIELD M      508   32   6.30%   216    257
ELMWOOD B          286   18   6.29%   150    117
NO COLL HILL 1-B   449   28   6.24%   258    163
COLUMBIA D         412   25   6.07%    35    352

Outside of Cincinnati there are 4 precincts with more than 8% of the ballots uncounted.  John Kerry won them all overwhelmingly, by a margin of 10 to 1 in the aggregate.  There are 10 other precincts with more than 6% of the ballots uncounted.  John Kerry won 5 of the 10, and the high rate of uncounted votes cannot be coincidental.  Woodlawn C was Kerry’s best precinct of 4 in the town.  Blue Ash 2-C was the only one of 14 precincts Kerry won in the town.  Columbia-D was Kerry’s best of 13 precincts in the town.