17 October 2014

On Election Night, when 100% of the precincts in Miami County had reported, only 31,620 votes had been counted.  George W. Bush was reported to have won Miami County with 20,807 votes (65.80%) to 10,724 votes (33.92%) for John F. Kerry.  These numbers did seem low.  In 2000 there had been 42,841 ballots cast.  Bush had won Miami County with 26,037 votes (60.78%) to 15,584 votes (36.38%) for Al Gore.

Somehow the final total came in later that night at 50,235 votes cast, giving Bush a margin of 16,000 votes, exactly – 33,039 to 17,039.  Moreover, as has been widely reported, even with the addition of 18,615 new votes, Bush's percentage was almost unchanged (65.80% to 65.77%), and Kerry's percentage was exactly the same (33.92%).  This led some observers to believe that the optical scanner had been programmed to come out that way, to provide the desired 16,000-vote plurality.

Miami County is also noteworthy because of the increase in Bush’s point spread.  Bush beat Gore by 60.78% to 36.38% in Miami County, a margin of 24.40%, for a plurality 10,453 votes.  While Kerry did receive more votes than Gore, his percentage of the vote was much lower.  This time, Bush was reported to have won Miami County by a margin of 31.85%.  Coupled with an increase in turnout, then reported at 17.26%, Bush increased his margin from 10,453 votes to 16,000, winning 7,002 of 7,394 new voters.

Now the 1,609 provisional ballots have been examined, 1,542 of them have been counted, and the results have been certified.  Bush now claims victory in Miami County with 34,005 votes (65.68%) to 17,611 votes (34.01%) for Kerry.  Officially there were 51,777 votes counted for president, an increase of 20.86% over the 2000 presidential vote total.

This represents an astonishing increase in voter turnout.  The population of Miami County is reported to have grown from 98,868 to 100,230 since the 2000 census, an increase of only 1.38%.  The number of registered voters has risen from 66,765 in 2000 to 72,169 in 2004, an increase of 8.09%.

How did the Republicans do it?  To answer this question I have compared, on a precinct by precinct basis, the presidential vote totals for 2004 with those of 2000.  Since turnout was key to Bush’s impressive margin in Miami County, I have organized the data according to voter turnout.

First a disclaimer:  When Diane Miley of the Miami County Board of Elections faxed me the election results, she made the following disclaimer on the cover sheet:  “Please note that the 11/7/00 turnout report is not included.  Our predecessors made a programming error which didn’t permit a complete report.”

Therefore, while I can calculate voter turnout for 2004 as total ballots cast divided by the number of registered voters, I cannot do the same for 2000.  When comparing turnout in the two elections I can only compare the votes counted for president.

MIAMI COUNTY PRECINCTS WITH HIGHEST TURNOUT, 2004 ELECTION
 
               Registered  Votes Percent
                   Voters  Cast  Turnout  Bush  Kerry  Bush  Gore
 
CONCORD SOUTH WEST    689   679   98.55    520   157    378   132
CONCORD SOUTH         698   658   94.27    468   182    300   151
TIPP CITY F           622   550   88.42    360   184    249   166
TROY 3-G              848   732   86.32    496   231    184    96
TIPP CITY E          1195   979   81.92    754   221    581   205
TROY 4-F              604   490   81.13    395    94    122    42
MONROE EAST CENTRAL   935   757   80.96    508   247    426   275
TROY 2-D              650   524   80.62    306   216    306   288
 
PIQUA 5-B            1155   929   80.43    652   273    528   216
MONROE SOUTH EAST    1175   943   80.26    682   252    598   224
MONROE SOUTH          693   555   80.09    379   175    362   167

It is my professional opinion that these numbers are fraudulent, and that this election has been hacked.  There simply was not a 98.55% turnout in Concord South West precinct or anywhere else in Ohio.  Nor was there a 94.27% turnout in Concord South precinct.  I do not believe that Bush won 111 of 129 new voters in Tipp City Precinct F, or 173 of 189 new voters in Tipp City Precinct E, or 273 of 325 new voters in Troy Precinct 4-F, or that voter turnout increased by 194.58% in Troy Precinct 4-F, or that voter turnout increased by 152.78% in Troy Precinct 3-G, or that Bush increased his margin by 110 votes among 54 new voters in Monroe East Central Precinct, or that 72 Democrats who voted in the 2000 election chose not to vote in 2004 in Troy Precinct 2-D while all the Republicans did.  To further illustrate my point I have included the other three precincts with 80% turnout, all of which show modest increases for both candidates, as would be expected.

MIAMI COUNTY PRECINCTS WITH LOWEST TURNOUT
 
               Registered  Votes Percent
                   Voters  Cast  Turnout  Bush  Kerry  Bush  Gore
 
PIQUA 1-B/D          1095   545   49.77    270   270    164   220
PIQUA 3-A            1277   681   53.33    391   282    198   200
PIQUA 1-A             692   387   55.92    193   188     97   126
CONCORD SOUTH EAST   1199   678   56.55    502   171    572   206
TROY 4-A              796   477   59.92    278   194    202   164
TROY 4-B/D            881   520   59.02    256   258    178   211
PIQUA 5-A             757   456   60.24    231   220    175   192
TROY 4-E              711   429   60.34    217   203    148   195

It is my professional opinion that the reported results for the first four of these precincts are fraudulent also.  I do not believe that (excluding third-party candidates in order to make my point clearly), John Kerry ran 7.3% behind Al Gore in Piqua Precinct 1-B/D, 8.35% behind Al Gore in Piqua Precinct 3-A, or 7.2% behind Al Gore in Piqua Precinct 1-A, nor do I believe the reported turnout of 49.77%, 53.33%, and 55.92% in a county said to have averaged 72.23% county wide, nor do I believe that turnout in these precincts, compared to the 2000 election, increased by 34.24%, 66.50%, and 63.25%, respectively, in a county that experienced only a 1.38% increase in population.  Nor do I believe the reported turnout of 56.55% in Concord South East Precinct, which is no doubt contiguous to Concord South West and Concord South precincts, with their reported turnouts of 98.55% and 94.27%.  I challenge the extremely high reported turnout in the Bush precincts and the very low reported turnout in the Kerry precinct.  It is not my experience that Democrats don’t like to vote.  I am skeptical of the results reported for the next four precincts also, where, in the aggregate, Bush gained 279 votes among 392 new voters, where Kerry ran behind Gore by 3.7%, 4.0%, 3.5%, and 8.5%, respectively.

OTHER MIAMI COUNTY PRECINCTS WITH LARGEST INCREASE IN TURNOUT
 
                     Vote Count  Percent
                     2000  2004  Increase Bush  Kerry  Bush  Gore
 
TROY 2-F              192   321    67.19   407   227    282   146
PIQUA 5-C             380   580    52.63   375   205    214   159
TROY 2-E              435   634    45.75   407   227    282   146
BETHEL SOUTH CENTRAL  708   999    41.10   666   327    412   274
TIPP CITY G           536   708    32.09   478   229    332   186
TROY 1-D              538   704    30.86   459   243    344   185
TROY 3-E              515   672    30.49   406   265    296   208
PIQUA 2-B/C           403   523    29.78   278   243    167   219
PIQUA 4-B/C           334   431    29.04   238   193    173   154
WEST MILTON C         557   718    28.90   465   248    351   193
PIQUA 1-C/E           367   472    28.61   261   210    150   197
CONCORD NORTH         283   363    28.27   239   121    197    79
NEWBERRY WEST         478   612    28.03   428   183    337   131
PIQUA 3-D/E           364   464    27.47   273   186    185   166

It is my professional opinion that the reported results for many of these precincts are fraudulent also.  I do not believe that voter turnout increased by 67.19% in Troy Precinct 2-F, 52.63% in Piqua Precinct 5-C, 45.75% in Troy Precinct 2-E, and 41.10% in Bethel South Central Precinct, in a county with 1.38% population growth.  Nor do I believe that Bush won 254 of 307 new voters in Bethel South Central Precinct, 146 of 189 new voters in Tipp City Precinct G, 111 of 135 new voters in Piqua Precinct 2-B/C, 111 of 124 new voters in Piqua Precinct 1-C/E, or 88 of 108 new voters in Piqua Precinct 3-D/E.  The reported results for the other six precincts could well be true, but only if voter turnout really did increase by 28.03% to 30.86%.