01 April 2014

Executive Summary:

  • There is a substantial discrepancy—well outside the margin of error and outcomedeterminative—
    between the national exit poll and the popular vote count.

  • The possible causes of the discrepancy would be random error, a skewed exit poll, or
    breakdown in the fairness of the voting process and accuracy of the vote count.

  • Analysis shows that the discrepancy cannot reasonably be accounted for by chance or
    random error.

  • Evidence does not support hypotheses that the discrepancy was produced by problems
    with the exit poll.

  • Widespread breakdown in the fairness of the voting process and accuracy of the vote
    count are the most likely explanations for the discrepancy.

  • In an accurate count of a free and fair election, the strong likelihood is that Kerry
    would have been the winner of the popular vote.



  • Download the paper (PDF, File size: 2.1 MB)