01 May 2014

I give my heartfelt thanks to Steven Elias for
obtaining the precinct canvass data and producing the
spread sheets that made it possible for me to write
this report in a timely manner.



A 14-page letter dated December 2, 2004 from four
Members of Congress to J. Kenneth Blackwell, Ohio
Secretary of State, and posted online at



http://www.spidel.net/ohblackwellltr12204.pdf



contains many disturbing allegations concerning the
presidential election in Ohio. Here is an excerpt:



“According to post election canvassing, many ballots
were cast without any valid selection for president.
For example, two precincts in Montgomery County had an
undervote rate of over 25% each ? accounting for
nearly 6,000 voters who stood in line to vote, but
purportedly declined to vote for president. This is
in stark contrast to the 2% of undervoting
county-wide. Disturbingly, predominantly Democratic
precincts had 75% more undervotes than those that were
predominantly Republican. It is inconceivable that
such a large number of people supposedly did not have
a preference for president in such a controversial and
highly contested election.”



To examine this allegation, I have utilized the
precinct by precinct canvass data for the 2004
election, as I have done for other counties where such
records have been made available. For Montgomery
County, I had Steven Elias provide an extra column on
his spreadsheet, subtracting the total votes for
president from the total ballots cast, on a precinct
by precinct basis.



Shortly after the election I obtained from the website
of the Ohio Secretary of State the data I needed to
make a statewide compilation on a county by county
basis of the uncounted votes, exclusive of provisional
ballots. These data have since been taken down from
said website. I present them here.



Montgomery County



Registered Voters       391,914

Ballots Cast            279,801

Votes Counted           274,147

Votes Uncounted           5,654

Provisional Ballots       9,227







John F. Kerry           138,262

George W. Bush          134,716

Other candidates          1,169

Thus, according to the Ohio Secretary of State’s own
data, the countywide percentage of uncounted votes,
exclusive of provisional ballots, was 2.02%.




The Montgomery County Board of Elections has provided
its precinct canvass records dated November 22, 2004.
These include the counting of provisional ballots:




Montgomery County

Registered Voters       391,914

Ballots Cast            287,635

Regular                 258,337

Absentee                 29,298

 

John F. Kerry           142,977

George W. Bush          138,361

Other candidates          1,214



By comparing the two counts, one may deduce that 7,834
provisional ballots have been ruled valid and counted,
and 1,393 provisional ballots have been ruled invalid
and not counted, though hopefully not discarded. Of
these 7,834 provisional ballots, 4,715 were cast for
Kerry, 3,645 for Bush, and at least 45 for other
candidates, excluding write-ins.




Already we have a discrepancy. 8,405 new votes have
been counted, and 1,393 have not been counted, which
works out to 571 more than the number of provisional
ballots, 9,227, reported by the Ohio Secretary of
State. If these 571 newly counted votes came from the
5,654 previously uncounted regular ballots, that
should leave 5,083 regular ballots uncounted. The
Montgomery County canvass records indicate that 5,085
ballots remain uncounted. Thus there are 569 newly
counted regular ballots, and we may never know in
which precincts these ballots were cast.




This brings us to the central question of this study:
Where did the uncounted regular ballots come from?




Dayton Ward 13, Precinct C, had the most uncounted
regular ballots, 37 in all, or 7.0% of the 525 ballots
cast. Dayton Ward 14, Precinct A, had the highest
percentage of uncounted ballots, 15.6%, or 7 of 45
ballots cast. Here is a table of the precincts with
the highest percentages of uncounted ballots:




PRECINCTS WITH 4.0% OR MORE UNCOUNTED BALLOTS

Precinct   Ballots Cast  Uncounted  Bush  Kerry

DAYTON 14-A         45    7  15.6%    14     23

DAYTON 3-L         295   25   8.5%    10    260

DAYTON 21-B        122   10   8.2%     2    109

DAYTON 22-C        293   22   7.5%     8    263

DAYTON 21-D        459   34   7.4%    24    400

DAYTON 19-D        277   20   7.2%     8    249

DAYTON 13-C        525   37   7.0%    19    468

DAYTON 13-E        245   17   6.9%     5    223

DAYTON 14-B        139    9   6.5%     5    125

TROTWOOD 2-C       497   31   6.2%    59    406

TROTWOOD 2-G       309   19   6.1%    22    268

DAYTON 4-I         398   24   6.0%    63    311

DAYTON 6-G         501   29   5.8%    17    453

DAYTON 8-F         348   20   5.7%   145    177

DAYTON 6-A         418   24   5.7%    23    371

DAYTON 17-E        325   18   5.5%    52    253

DAYTON 14-I        528   29   5.5%    35    463

DAYTON 16-G        510   28   5.5%    39    443

DAYTON 21-A        549   30   5.5%    52    464

HARRISON A         415   21   5.1%   149    242

DAYTON 7-G         204   10   4.9%    15    178

DAYTON 5-B         250   12   4.8%    20    218

DAYTON 5-E         499   23   4.6%    34    438

DAYTON 5-D         262   12   4.6%     8    242

TROTWOOD 4-E       488   22   4.5%    38    427

DAYTON 19-H        335   15   4.5%    13    306

DAYTON 16-B        606   27   4.5%    39    539

DAYTON 18-F        292   13   4.5%    19    260

DAYTON 5-I         269   12   4.5%     5    252

DAYTON 6-C         499   22   4.4%    19    454

DAYTON 8-I         431   19   4.4%   195    209

DAYTON 5-F         500   22   4.4%    63    412

DAYTON 15-C        618   27   4.4%    35    552

DAYTON 15-D        550   24   4.4%    18    507

DAYTON 2-E         619   27   4.4%   187    401

HARRISON H         391   17   4.3%    79    294

DAYTON 7-C         231   10   4.3%    10    209

DAYTON 16-H        324   14   4.3%    21    289

DAYTON 1-G         395   17   4.3%   121    256

DAYTON 4-E         353   15   4.2%   103    231

DAYTON 14-C        330   14   4.2%     8    306

DAYTON 15-G        356   15   4.2%    18    323

DAYTON 6-I         263   11   4.2%     9    243

DAYTON 14-H        366   15   4.1%     5    346

TROTWOOD 2-E       518   21   4.1%    74    422

DAYTON 4-J         421   17   4.0%    91    309

DAYTON 17-C        324   13   4.0%    34    277


The data presented above does not include absentee
ballots, which are not broken down by precinct.




Montgomery County

Absentee ballots cast       29,298

George W. Bush              14,302

John F. Kerry               14,180

Other candidates               120

Absentee ballots uncounted     696   

Thus there are 696 uncounted absentee ballots (2.38%
of 29,298), and 4,387 uncounted regular ballots (1.70%
of 258,337) in Montgomery County. These, along with
any uncounted provisional ballots, need to be examined
by hand during the recount. The same holds true for
every other county in Ohio.




The strikingly partisan distribution of the uncounted
ballots is nothing short of shocking. There are 588
precincts in Montgomery County. As the above table
shows, the percentage of uncounted ballots is 4.0% or
more in 47 precincts, and every single one of these
precincts was won by John Kerry, nearly all of them by
overwhelming margins. Only two were even close.




Altogether, in these 47 precincts, Kerry won 14,871
votes to 2,032 for Bush, a margin of 7 to 1. In these
47 precincts there are 920 uncounted regular ballots,
or 21.0% of the county wide total. In the other 541
precincts in Montgomery County, among which the
uncounted regular ballots are distributed at a rate of
6.4 per precinct, Kerry won 128,106 votes to 136,329
for Bush. Thus, 21.0% of the uncounted regular
ballots are in 8.7% of the precincts that accounted
for 6.0% of the votes in the county.




In these 47 precincts, which went for Kerry by a
margin of 7 to 1, the “spoilage” rate of regular
ballots was 5.16%, compared to 1.31% for the rest of
the county, and 1.70% for the whole of the county.




There is an old political adage which says that only a
close election can be stolen. In a close election,
uncounted ballots can make all the difference.