31 March 2014

The goal of this book is to show the average voter that we have not been told the truth about our elections. As one who has spent a lifetime building computer models in engineering, corporate finance and investment analysis, I am not alone in claiming that our electoral system is broken. But this is not a book about politics. It is about rational and faith-based thinking.

A thorough analysis of the 1988-2008 state and national unadjusted exit polls has revealed startling results which prove systemic election fraud beyond any doubt. The one-sided pattern of “red shift” discrepancies to the recorded vote is mathematically impossible. Informing the average voter of this information is a major focus of this book.

The corporate media and both major political parties are complicit in maintaining the fiction of a democratic system by claiming that the electorate is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans. It’s a myth that the media needs to perpetuate in order to make it appear elections are fair. And they accomplish this by manipulating pre-election and exit polls to conform to the recorded vote counts. This practice is nothing new; exit polls have always been forced to match the official counts. Pollsters admit it. The adjustments are growing in magnitude due to the sharp increase in minorities and newly registered Democratic voters – and the growing “red-shift”.

One month before the 2012 election, the National Election Pool, a consortium of six media giants which runs the exit polls, decided to eliminate polling in 19 states.

But the 1988-2008 unadjusted exit poll data is an historical fact; systemic election fraud has already been proven. And a post-election analysis of vote share anomalies that are sure to occur in 2012 will be investigated using the True Vote Model which has confirmed the exit polls (and vice-versa) for each of the last six presidential elections.

The Democrats should normally be prohibitive favorites to win the Presidency and Congress. They have captured the majority of new voters in every election since 1988. Obama had better than 72% of new voters; Kerry had approximately 60%. In pre-election polls, the percentage of newly registered Democratic voters is reduced by likely voter cutoff models. Post-election, the exit polls are adjusted to conform to the recorded vote, even if it means assuming an impossible number of voters from the previous election. Polling samples are based on previous recorded votes, not on votes cast. There were 40 million more votes cast than recorded in the last six elections.

In order to have a chance of winning, the Republicans must keep the number of eligible voters as small as possible. They accomplish this though overt voter disenfranchisement. That is Step One. But it’s not enough. Step Two is to erase the remaining deficit. This is accomplished covertly by miscounting votes on unverifiable voting machines in which they control the secret code and the vote counting.

The media reports extensively on voter disenfranchisement, but refuse to discuss the fact that private corporations manufacture and control the voting machines and count the votes. This is an ongoing travesty has no place in a democracy. But the Democrats never talk about election fraud at the voting machines.

The scientific method has been ignored by the corporate media. It resorts to disinformation, talking points and faith-based theories on election results. As a result, the true facts about elections are hidden from the public. Historical data, logic and mathematical models are necessary in proving election fraud.

Personal belief and intuition are not enough. One must consider all of the relevant evidence before drawing any conclusions. Unfortunately, a knee-jerk response to new disturbing information is common, especially if it reveals facts outside of an individual’s belief system.

Our society depends on mathematics and science, yet the general public is math-phobic and easily fooled by misinformation. If the average person was aware of just a few basic statistical and probability concepts, they would see through the media propaganda. These risk-based concepts are used by voters every day in analyzing alternative purchase, budgeting and investment decisions. This is not rocket science.

Computer–based models that utilize publicly available data and proven mathematical formulas are an absolute requirement for an unbiased election analysis. These include mathematical concepts such as the mean (average), expected value, margin of error, random numbers, probability distributions, sensitivity analysis. It is not necessary to understand mathematical theory or formulas, just the basic concepts

The analysis of elections became possible only recently due to three factors. The personal computer and spreadsheet software have been available since the early 1980s, but it was not until the late 1990s that the Internet became widely available. The three necessary factors were then in place for election analysis.

But just having the technology is not enough. There must be motivation to expend the effort and use the tools to analyze the data. It’s safe to say that were it not for the 2000 and 2004 stolen elections, there would have been little or no incentive to uncover systemic fraud.

Chapter 1 discusses the scientific method, logical thinking and introduces probability models. The vast majority of voters are unaware as to the extent of the abuse of the scientific method and the simple mathematics which proves that the final exit polls are bogus.

Chapter 2 reviews the corporate media and academia lockdown on discussion and analysis of election fraud. If these institutions did their job, historical election data would need to be completely revised. The people would realize that they do not live in a true democracy since the votes are not counted as cast.

Chapter 3 covers election forecasting methods and polling simulation models. Pollsters and academics resort to prior election results as a basis for their analysis. Although likely voter (LV) pre-election polls have accurately projected the recorded vote, the question needs to be asked: is forecasting a likely miscounted recorded vote without mentioning the fraud factor legitimate? Or is it in fact providing cover for the fraud?

Chapter 4 is an introduction to exit polling methodology. Adjusted final exit polls misrepresent the actual results. The process of adjusting the exit polls in order to match the recorded vote closes the disinformation loop. Just like the pre-election polls, precincts selected for exit poll samples are largely based on previous election recorded votes – which were also adjusted. And the process continues in every election.

Chapter 5 covers unadjusted state and national exit polls. Of the 274 state presidential exit polls since 1988, 226 (82%) moved in favor of the Republicans in the recorded vote – the so-called “red-shift”. Of the 126 polls that exceeded the margin of error, 123 favored the Republicans. A simple calculation shows that if elections were fair, this result would not be possible.

Chapter 6 is an introduction to the True Vote Model. The TVM was developed for post-election analysis and is based on prior and current election votes cast, returning voter turnout and candidate shares of returning and new voters. The True Vote Model and unadjusted exit polls are crucial in proving systemic election fraud because they are unbiased and based on plausible statistics. The 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections each required an impossible number of returning Bush voters in order to force a match to the recorded vote.

Chapter 7 reviews the 2010 midterm elections. They are represented by the media as a Republican blowout. Pre-election and post election analysis covers senate and gubernatorial elections which appear to be fraudulent.

Chapter 8 is devoted to Wisconsin, which became the focal point of election activism in 2011 as a result of highly suspicious Supreme Court, state senate and governor recall elections. The evidence is compelling that most, if not all, were fraudulent.

Chapter 9 covers the upcoming 2012 presidential election. The pre-election model forecasts the True Vote as well as the official recorded vote. History shows that they always differ. Will Obama be able to overcome the fraud factor?

Chapter 10 reviews the statistical evidence which shows that Oregon has had an excellent record for accurate vote counting since 1998, when it converted to a 100% early voting system of mailed or hand delivered ballots..

Chapter 11 proposes that corrupt, proprietary and unverifiable voting systems be replaced by a combination of hand-counted paper ballots and Open Source software. The Humboldt County, CA open source system photographs and counts the ballots which are stored online for anyone to view. Transparency and data redundancy are paramount.

Chapter 12 reviews some of the election myths and anomalies promoted by the corporate media, academics and online trolls who seek to disrupt discussions related to election integrity.

The Appendix covers basic mathematical concepts and includes 1972-2008 presidential state and national exit polls, true vote models and recorded vote data tables.


Matrix of Deceit

My website (Richard Charnin) contains links to my blog and related articles from a wide range of activists. It includes links to online postings dating back to 2004. There are links to state and national exit polls and true vote spreadsheet models. The models were created to analyze the local, state and national elections discussed in this book.