by Harvey "Sluggo" Wasserman
September 4, 2024
Traditionally, Labor Day polls predict November’s presidential outcome.
If so, Kamala Harris will narrowly defeat Donald Trump, in both the popular vote and Electoral College.
But mainstream polls never account for the evil underbelly of our electoral reality—-organized, well-funded, darkly predictable partisan theft, including the possibility of a coup that would succeed where January 6, 2021 failed.
For that, we need to dig deeper.
Kamela Harris now leads in enough states to win (barely) the 270 Electoral College votes she needs to take the White House.
If we assume—-as many polls do—-that she will carry all the states Joe Biden carried in 2020 (including stray Electors in Maine and Omaha) she will take the White House.
Six key states—-North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Arizona—-have Democratic governors.
Ohio, which might otherwise be in play, is ruled by a Republican Governor, Attorney-General, Secretary of State and legislative majorities. The Legislature was recently bought (or rented) with a $61 million bribe to pass a $1 billion atomic reactor bailout (the former House Speaker is currently in federal prison; two cohorts have committed suicide). At stake in November are not only Ohio’s 17 Electoral College votes but the key seat of US Senator Sherrod Brown.
An abortion referendum could make Florida a swing state . But Governor Ron DeSantis is unlikely to let it go blue.
Georgia polls say its 16 electoral votes are up for grabs. But its Republican Governor (despite his feud with Trump) and hard-right legislature make a certified Harris victory a real challenge.
North Carolina—-also with 16 electoral votes—-leans now to Trump, but could flip. The X factor is the GOP’s ultra-right gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, who may drag down the whole Republican ticket.
NC’s popular term-limited Governor Roy Cooper, and the Democrat running to succeed him, state Attorney General Josh Stein, may help Harris. But the hard-right NC legislature (like Ohio) will require a fierce election protection groundswell for Harris to compete.
Within the Blue Wall, Tim Walz governs Minnesota, in many ways joined at the hip with neighboring Wisconsin.
Harris also leads slightly in Michigan and Pennsylvania, which also have popular Democratic governors.
Trump is polling slightly ahead in Nevada, whose Republican governor is at his disposal.
He’s also slightly ahead in Arizona, which has both a Democratic governor and a strong election protection community, including the recently elected Democratic Secretary of State.
If the six swing states with Democratic governors (MN, WI, MI, PA, NC, AZ) hold, Harris will win.
But all polls pale before the subversive blitzkrieg run by Trump’s commando-in-chief, Steve Bannon.
Bannon will soon return from prison to his relentless “War Room” podcast attacks on democracy. His infiltration of state and local election boards means to strip voter rolls, cripple ballot access, accelerate de-certification, and much more.
In 2000 such tactics, as deployed by Florida’s then-Governor Jeb Bush, put George W. Bush (his brother) into the White House.
In 2004, Karl Rove’s manipulations flipped Ohio against John Kerry (who did nothing).
In 2016, Trump flipped Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania while Hillary Clinton also did nothing.
In 2020, amidst the Covid pandemic, thanks to two decades of grassroots election protection organizing, more than 80% of the nation’s votes were cast on hand-marked paper ballots that were US mailed into election boards. With reliable digital scanning, and hard-fought recounts in Arizona and elsewhere, democracy prevailed.
But Bannon’s MAGA minions are now stripping voter rolls, restricting voter access, disenfranchising citizens of youth and color, intimidating election boards and much much more.
Throughout the US, scores of laws aim to undermine democracy. Countless Trump/Bannon operatives are set to block certification of potentially decisive Electoral College delegations.
Even if Harris wins the popular vote, and a majority of the Electoral delegations shy of 270, the election could go to the US House.
There a one-state/one-vote tally could make Trump dictator.
Meanwhile, three US Supreme Court “Justices”—Roberts, Kavanaugh, Barrett—actively supported the violent “Brooks Brothers Mob” that enthroned W. Bush. Clarence Thomas cast the decisive vote in that coup’s favor.
American democracy was thus gutted in Florida 2000, Ohio 2004, Wisconsin-Michigan-
In 2024, a tsunami of lethal “irregularities” is already upon us.
If the Democrats again squander their millions on electronic advertising rather than relational grassroots campaigning, Donald Trump will become president for life.
And if Harris ignores the warnings of Florida 2000, Ohio 2004 and the Blue Wall 2016, Donald Trump’s “one day dictatorship” will stretch into the deep dark.
This week’s Labor Day polls may predict a Harris victory.
But our cancerous electoral underbelly demands our utmost activism.
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Harvey Wasserman wrote THE PEOPLE’S SPIRAL OF US HISTORY and, with Bob Fitrakis, THE STRIP & FLIP DISASTER OF AMERICA’S STOLEN ELECTIONS (freepress.org) Most Mondays at 5pm ET/2pm PT he co-convenes the GREEN GRASSROOTS EMERGENCY ELECTION PROTECTION zooms (usgrassroots.org & grassrootsep.org ).