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A forecasting model that does not utilize a Sensitivity Analysis of alternative forecast assumptions is incomplete. This analysis of 10 battleground states is based on various voter turnout and vote share scenarios.
The states are: CO FL IA NC NH NV OH PA VA WI
In 2008, Obama won the recorded vote by 52.9%-45.6%.
He won the unadjusted state exit poll weighted aggregate by 58-40.5%
The True Vote Model indicated that he won by 58.0-40.3%
In the 10 states, Obama’s…
Average 2008 recorded share: 53.3%
Average 2008 exit poll: 57.8%
The following assumptions apply to all 10 states:
1. The number of returning voters is based on the 2008 state exit poll.
2. There is 5% voter mortality (1.25%/year)
3. Turnout: 95% of Obama 2008 voters; 97% of McCain voters.
4. Obama wins 92% of returning Obama voters and 5% of McCain.
5. Romney wins 95% of returning McCain voters and 8% of Obama.
Given the above, there are two sets of sensitivity tables.
Table 1: Obama shares of returning Obama voters (87-97%); McCain voters (0-10%)
