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The change the country needs in this election, close polling observers agree, can only happen through four plausible avenues--- Biden wins PA ( the most likely way) or, if Trump manages to keep the state’s rust belt red there, through 3 alternative Sunbelt routes : capturing often-slippery Florida, winning NC, or the long detour of AZ plus Omaha’s one electoral vote.
On Thursday, just hours before millions watched a debate that changed few minds, a handful of Republican operatives quietly took actions that could well change the November outcome in two of the critical swing states.
Lawyers in both PA and NC advanced alarming federal court litigation to cut back acceptance of absentee ballots, asking the Supreme Court to rule on shrinking the time window for receiving countable ballots by 3 days in PA, by 6 days in NC. This could put Trump’s second term in the hands of just nine voters – the same black-robed set (with some new faces) that effectively installed George W in the White House.
A few days later, on Monday 10/26, the Supreme Court sent a strong signal, -- in its 5-3 ruling rolling back the date on which ballots in Covid-plagued Wisconsin should be accepted---that they have no interest in voters’ safety or protection. Comments by Justice Kavanaugh were ominously inclined toward vote suppression.
These cases can easily become Bush v Gore 2.0 – or perhaps Bush v Gore squared since they aim at throwing out ballots before they’re even considered rather than simply stopping a recount.
The stakes in these parallel lawsuits could not be higher. Some 35 wobbling electoral votes are in jeopardy. Disenfranchising hundreds of thousands --- many Democrats traditionally being late voters --- could determine the direction of PA and NC, which in turn, odds-makers say, settles the national outcome.
PA, with its 20 electoral votes, is the most likely tipping-point in the battle for the White House, according to the math wizardry of vote-statistics website 538.com. The elaborate prediction machine at 538 says that PA has a 3 in 10 chance of tipping the balance, neck-and-neck NC with its 15 electoral votes the 5th most likely state to be decisive.
The Supreme Court has demonstrated, just last week, its lack of interest in letting every vote count, and indifference to Covid conditions. In a 5-3 decision (Roberts here siding with the conservatives) on Wednesday, the Supremes overruled a district court decision to allow drive-through curbside voting in Alabama. There was no written explanation by the majority but Justice Sotomayor’s dissent noted the ban forced vulnerable citizens to choose between the health risks of a crowded venue and disenfranchisement. The majority’s decision suggests there will be little respect in DC for the state supreme courts’ conclusions that Covid necessitated flexibility on deadlines.
However, there are several ways to prevent the issue being thrown into the hands of the Supreme Court. One, of course, is if Trump wins both PA and NC cleanly, but that’s an unlikely catastrophe. A second, almost as unlikely, is a landslide with Georgia and Texas blue , which make PA & NC superfluous– but don’t even think of going to the bank with that one.
The third, and most obvious, is to redouble efforts to build a margin in PA & NC wide enough that late votes won’t matter. Luckily, we don’t even have to depend on those currently registered in NC – people can still register through Halloween at early voting sites.
If you don’t want Amy Barrett being The Decider, you may want to help make NC & PA safer for Democrats. Grass-roots activist groups, some growing out of Sanders circles, some fostered by unions or environmental battles, have learned the lesson of 2016 and are walking around some new blocks.
Among non-party groups engaged in this effort are the labor-backed A Phillip Randolph Institute, working largely in rural parts of the state, and two smaller groups that want help, virtual or in the flesh.
A physical presence, says Theo Luebke of the Carolina Federation, is ideal since the poorer and more marginal voting prospect – including ex-prisoners whose franchise was restored only in August – take time to track down. However, those who aren’t in driving distance of NC can take to the phones and thus free up locals to get out in the streets.
Both the Carolina Federation and grass-rootsy Down Home NC are eager for help from out of state volunteers.
Here are the links to volunteer (phone bank) with Down Home:
Here is the link to volunteer (phone bank) with the Carolina Federation:
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All Phone Banks: https://www.mobilize.us/carolinafederation/event/322016/
Here is the link to volunteer (socially distant canvassing) with the Carolina Federation:
Canvasses: https://www.mobilize.us/carolinafederation/?event_type=1
Two PA groups in particular are mounting savvy and sophisticated programs to find new voters and mobilize the less motivated existing voter. Both PA Stands Up and Pennsylvania United are well rooted in Philadelphia and its bluer suburbs but are are now probing the state’s purple precincts.
PA Stands Up has expanded into the growing Lehigh Valley, the Harrisburg area and is turning pink Pennsylvania Dutch country into contested terrain, even crossing the Susquehanna into populous York County to keep Trump margins down.
They have 10 active chapters inow, most of them engaged in « deep canvassing » persuasion, but also looking out for people who might register in the last few days they can. To volunteer with their phone banks, see attachment. To help their electoral work financially please go to: https://PAStandsUp.org/DONATE Or contribute to state or federal PACs via info@pastandsup.org
At the state’s other end, Pittsburgh-based Pennsylvania United has expanded its field work into several longtime Democratic strongholds hollowed out by factory flight and lately swinging red, ---Washington, Beaver and Westmorland counties, and Erie, blue but faded.
Their director, Jennifer Kennedy sends this invite : UPDATE
Our main focus right now is a big weekend of action this Saturday and Sunday - … our last deep canvass push to try and call every last