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RE: Warren County, Ohio: most successful voter registration drive in American political history, or stuffing the ballot box
by Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.
December 1, 2004
Prior to the election of 2004 I believed it was prudent to listen to analysts. I don't any longer.
I grew up in Warren County. I began living there in 1958. I have been away for many years in military service, but it is my home of record and I vote there by absentee ballot. Dr. Philips wrote "an analyst who has all the vote data for 2000 and 2004 by precinct in several Ohio counties did a detailed analysis by precinct of the huge increase in Bush votes and margin in Warren county." The analyst fails.
I want to return to Warren County. I am not sure I will be able to afford it. I visit at least once or twice a year and have been utterly stunned by the growth in the last five years. Where once beans grew hundreds of houses stand - all in the last five years. I did not go to high school in the county - I went to Moeller High School in Cincinnati. The rural county that was my home was the butt of many jokes - and now is the home to those same kind of people - ruined by the the suburban tone.
But enough of my lamentations. My point is you and your analysts are idiots. A little bit of analysis would bear out the astounding demographic changes in recent years and probably account for most of the unusual patterns seen - it sure accounts for the fact I can no longer run on once deserted rural roads without risk of being hit by an SUV and land values that have soared beyond my reach.
In future print statements from folks worthy of the term analysis. It would have been prudent (and probably worthy of the term science) to look for alternative explanations. For God's sake his own affidavit states "I am a professional hydrologist and am well versed in standard techniques of statistical analysis, with special expertise in spotting anomalous data (emphasis added)." Perhaps I am the idiot. If Dr. Phillips took demographic changes from 2000 to 2004 into consideration I would be happy to listen - but since no census has taken place complied data is hard to find. But I assure you folks are on the move in southwest Ohio. Unfortunately people do not follow the predictable patterns of water, but Warren County has experienced a flood of humans from 2000 to 2004. That may have something to do with the differences between 2000 and 2004 data.
Add light not heat in the future.
Steve Ackman
San Juan, PR
by Richard Hayes Phillips, Ph.D.
December 1, 2004
Prior to the election of 2004 I believed it was prudent to listen to analysts. I don't any longer.
I grew up in Warren County. I began living there in 1958. I have been away for many years in military service, but it is my home of record and I vote there by absentee ballot. Dr. Philips wrote "an analyst who has all the vote data for 2000 and 2004 by precinct in several Ohio counties did a detailed analysis by precinct of the huge increase in Bush votes and margin in Warren county." The analyst fails.
I want to return to Warren County. I am not sure I will be able to afford it. I visit at least once or twice a year and have been utterly stunned by the growth in the last five years. Where once beans grew hundreds of houses stand - all in the last five years. I did not go to high school in the county - I went to Moeller High School in Cincinnati. The rural county that was my home was the butt of many jokes - and now is the home to those same kind of people - ruined by the the suburban tone.
But enough of my lamentations. My point is you and your analysts are idiots. A little bit of analysis would bear out the astounding demographic changes in recent years and probably account for most of the unusual patterns seen - it sure accounts for the fact I can no longer run on once deserted rural roads without risk of being hit by an SUV and land values that have soared beyond my reach.
In future print statements from folks worthy of the term analysis. It would have been prudent (and probably worthy of the term science) to look for alternative explanations. For God's sake his own affidavit states "I am a professional hydrologist and am well versed in standard techniques of statistical analysis, with special expertise in spotting anomalous data (emphasis added)." Perhaps I am the idiot. If Dr. Phillips took demographic changes from 2000 to 2004 into consideration I would be happy to listen - but since no census has taken place complied data is hard to find. But I assure you folks are on the move in southwest Ohio. Unfortunately people do not follow the predictable patterns of water, but Warren County has experienced a flood of humans from 2000 to 2004. That may have something to do with the differences between 2000 and 2004 data.
Add light not heat in the future.
Steve Ackman
San Juan, PR