BANGKOK, Thailand -- The Commander of the U.S. Army Pacific, Lt. Gen. Benjamin Mixon, predicted a coup was "unlikely" during the Pentagon's military training exercise on Thai soil, but a powerful Red Shirt opposition movement has now targeted America's relations with Thailand's coup-minded army.

"In the unlikely event of a coup, we will take our direction from D.O.D.," Lt. Gen. Mixon said a few days ago in an e-mail interview, referring to U.S. Department of Defense guidelines.

Ultimately, a coup did not occur during the Cobra Gold 2010 joint military exercise, which began on February 2 and successfully ended on Thursday (February 11).

South Korea participated for the first time, and joined Singapore, Japan, Indonesia and Thailand with a combined total of 11,500 personnel, including 6,000 from America, the U.S. Army's Pacific Public Affairs Office said.

But simultaneously, 20,000 Thai security forces are separately being deployed throughout Bangkok at strategic sites.

They are a response to expectations of violent anti-government protests before, or after, the Supreme Court rules on February 26 to decide if the government can seize two billion U.S. dollars in assets from former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his family for alleged financial crimes.

Mr. Thaksin's huge number of supporters "see the verdict as the culmination of a long offensive of injustice, since the September 19, 2006 coup" toppled him, wrote Institute of Security and International Studies director, Thitinan Pongsudhirak.

"Thailand will see much more pain and grief."

Mr. Thaksin, who won three elections, remains in self-exile dodging a two-year jail sentence for a corrupt real estate deal which favored his wife.

In addition to the protests and court decision, Bangkok has also been gripped for weeks about the possibility of yet another military coup.

Many Thais fear the army might stage a coup to strengthen its dominance over Thailand's political system and military budget, and guarantee promotions for its officers.

Thailand has suffered nine successful coups, plus 11 failed coups, since 1933.

"With fear of uncontrolled riots, or clashes between protesters lurking in the background, many people speculate that the army might have to resort to staging another coup to bring back order, even though the army chief has repeatedly denied such a possibility," the Bangkok Post reported on Thursday (February 11).

A slew of desperate-sounding media reports about the possibilities of an imminent coup have prompted assurances from Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his top generals that a putsch is not being hatched.

For example, Gen. Anupong announced on February 1: "I repeat, there is no coup plan." In January, however, an unidentified assailant exploded an M79 grenade in Gen. Anupong's office, sparking concerns about potential rifts within Thailand's 200,000-strong military.

This Southeast Asian nation's convoluted political confrontation also ensnared the Pentagon's Cobra Gold.

Mr. Thaksin's supporters -- a loosely controlled mass movement known as the Red Shirts -- demanded U.S. President Barack Obama explain why the U.S. Embassy in Thailand approved an American visa to one of the Thai generals who enabled the 2006 coup.

"They granted current Army Commander-in- Chief, General Anupong Paojinda, [a U.S. visa] to visit the United States from the 5th to the 14th (of February)," said Sean Boonpracong, a spokesman for the Red Shirts, during an interview on February 5. Gen. Anupong reportedly will visit New York, Washington and Georgia.

The Red Shirts, officially known as the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), opposed the American visa for Gen. Anupong because "he was the First Army commander, who provided 90 percent of the troops to make that coup in the year 2006 a success," Mr. Boonpracong said.

"Therefore, I went to the United States Embassy on [February 3] to hand in this letter to President Barack Obama," demanding to know why the visa was issued.

"U.S. Army Chief of Staff General Casey invited his counterpart, General Anupong, to visit the U.S.," an American Embassy spokeswoman replied by e-mail when asked about the Red Shirts's letter.

"Many people share their views with the U.S. government, and we routinely talk to a wide array of Thai individuals and organizations."

In February 2008, Washington cancelled restrictions it imposed on Bangkok after the 2006 coup, and reinstated funding for America's International Military Exchange Training (IMET) progr

ams, Foreign Military Financing (FMF), and the Global Peacekeeping Operations Initiative (GPOI). The Red Shirts did not oppose Cobra Gold 2010, but Mr. Boonpracong warned "if the United States ignores us, we would put forth more opposition to the next Cobra Gold exercise" in 2011.

"We have tens of millions of followers."

Many of those millions remain angry that the 2006 coup destroyed their elected government, replaced the constitution with a junta-orchestrated 2007 charter, and now supports Prime Minister Abhisit whose small Democrat Party formed a ruling coalition with diverse Parliamentarians.

The Red Shirts want an immediate return to the 1997 constitution, an end to the coup leaders' immunity, and a nationwide election -- all of which Mr. Abhisit refused amid expectations that Mr. Thaksin's candidates would win at the polls.

Lt. Gen. Mixon meanwhile warned that the entire "Asia-Pacific region" was vulnerable to attacks.

"Every sovereign nation in the region faces threats in areas of homeland security, cyberspace, anti-access, weapons of mass destruction and counterinsurgency, counter-terrorist and other irregular operations," Lt. Gen. Mixon said in the interview.

Thailand is a non-NATO military ally of the U.S.

Bangkok's politicized military has also been unable to defeat Islamist Malay-Thai guerrillas in the south, where 4,000 people on all sides have perished since 2004.

Asked how Cobra Gold 2010 helps Thailand fight southern Muslim separatists, Lt. Gen. Mixon replied: "Cobra Gold 2010's training scenario closely parallels Thailand's needs to defend itself against insurgents and transnational threats."

***** Richard S Ehrlich is a Bangkok-based journalist who has reported news from Asia since 1978. He is co-author of Hello My Big Big Honey!, a non-fiction book of investigative journalism. His web page is http://www.asia-correspondent.110mb.com