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AUSTIN, Texas -- One thing I have always admired about the U.S. military services is their ability to learn from their mistakes. They have institutionalized this ability in the form of remarkable After Action Reviews, which include rigorous dissection of every aspect of whatever operation they were last required to take.

These AARs are both unsparing and illuminating -- I recall the particularly trenchant review of the (SET ITAL) opera bouffe (END ITAL) episode in which they were required to invade Grenada, an exercise so stunningly silly that it is beneath comment. They should have sent a Texas Ranger.

Of course, the military spent years poring over Vietnam, the one it lost. Even now, the feelings of many are still so tender on that one that I feel obliged to point out they didn't actually lose it -- they were sent into an unwinnable situation.

October surprises are built into our system, since elections come in November. Cliffhanger movies in Hollywood's old days could not have staged it better. Leaving aside hurricanes roaring out of the Gulf of Mexico and threatening to drown Louisiana, we have:

-- a lockout at every port on the West Coast, with the owners begging George Bush to help them break the Longshoremen's union (ILWU) by imposing a cooling-off period under Taft Hartley and threatening to bring in the armed forces to work the ports.

Meanwhile, Bush's Homeland Security bill is on life-support because many Democrats have stigmatized it as a savage assault on labor's ability to organize in the federal sector.

-- a white-lipped economy. In the second quarter alone, pension wealth fell by over $469 billion or 5.3 percent. House prices cushioned the blow a little but still left a net decline in wealth of 3.4 percent in one quarter, with its successor shaping up to be just as bad. There are uncertainties over the house price boom, plus rising unemployment. Bears rampage through the market.

AUSTIN, Texas -- I realize it's early days for this sort of thing, but I already have a nomination for dumbest sentence of the decade. You have a mere eight years to top this one, so you'd better get cracking.

I found it in the midst of nasty little ad hominem attack on Bill Moyers in The Weekly Standard. The writer, Stephen F. Hayes, is laboring under the delusion that Moyers is "dedicated to promoting the views of most extreme elements of the far left in America." One can only conclude that Hayes has never met anyone on the far left: Billy Don Moyers from Marshall, Texas, is actually a Baptist, albeit of the Jimmy Carter school.

Hayes worked himself up into a fine lather of indignation because "Moyers spends much of his time pointing out the conflicts-of-interest of those in government and corporate America." Some would call that journalism, but it was not the inanity of the attack on Moyers that stopped me. It was this sentence, which Hayes stuck in to show how far-left he thinks Moyers is: "Moyers used water rights in Bolivia as an illustration of the perils of capitalism."

FRANKENSTEIN AND THE MOB, OR KEEP YOUR SPINNAKER FULL!

AUSTIN, Texas -- The economy is a mess. We are now in the second dip of a double-dip recession. ("Looks like a W," say the economists, another reason why economists are not famous for their humor.) Six and a quarter trillion dollars has disappeared from the stock markets. We have so far to go in cleaning up corporate corruption, it makes the Augean stables look like spilt milk.

In the Sept. 23 issue of The New Yorker is an excellent piece called "The Greed Cycle," examining the effects of stock options on corporate culture. The most depressing thing about it is that even though it is a long article, it doesn't begin to cover the range of iniquities and inanities that have been allowed to flourish.

Robert Bryce's Enron book, "Pipedreams," provides more chilling detail. Mickie Siebert, the legendary and impressive head of Muriel Siebert & Co. (and a Republican) has been calling attention to the dangers of derivatives for years. Nothing was done even after Long Term Capital Management's spectacular failure. How many disasters does it take to get Washington's attention?

Like every little boy, I played cowboys and Indians, army and other childhood pastimes such as dodge ball or hide and seek with my friends. When not engaged in these games we often played football, basketball and, of course, baseball. We pretended to be the sports heros of the day - Jim Brown, Mickey Mantle, Jerry West and the big O. We always came through, we always won the big game. I too played these games. These men were my heroes. My favorite big game, and my biggest of heroes; however, I enjoyed by myself. I knew of no other aspiring Winston Churchills, Lafayettes, FDRs, Harry Trumans, Ikes, Langston Hughes', W. E. B. DuBois', Platos, Lincolns, Frederick Douglas' or Henry Clays. These men I admired, tried to emulate and dreamed of becoming.

All through the '80s and '90s, professorial mountebanks like James Q. Wilson, John DiIulio and Charles Murray grew sleek from best sellers about the criminal, probably innate, propensities of the "underclass," about the pathology of poverty, the teen predators, the collapse of morals, the irresponsibility of teen moms.

Now, there was indeed a vast criminal class coming to full vicious potential in the 1990s: a group utterly vacant of the most elementary instincts of social propriety, devoid of moral fiber, selfish to an almost unfathomable degree. The class comes in the form of our corporate elite.

Given a green light in the late 1970s by the deregulatory binge urged by corporate-funded think tanks and launched legislatively by Jimmy Carter and Ted Kennedy, by the 1990s, America's corporate leadership had evolved a simple strategy for criminal self-enrichment.

You might remember the old movie "Twelve Angry Men," starring Henry Fonda, Lee J. Cobb and E.G. Marshall. Most of the dramatic film takes place inside a jury room as a dozen people deliberate at the end of a murder trial. It's sweltering hot. At the outset, most of the jurors are eager to render a guilty verdict and go home. As the story unfolds, viewers learn that some are influenced by prejudice against the dark-skinned defendant.

We'd like to think that such bias doesn't hold sway in jury rooms these days. After all, "Twelve Angry Men" came out in 1957, and a lot of progress has occurred since then. But stereotypes and semi-conscious racism are still widespread factors in American society.

An essay in the new anthology "Race and Resistance" notes that "the power of the media is profound" -- and adds that "its most powerful impact is on children, who frame definitions of and draw conclusions about the world through the messages they receive."

Written by mass communications professor Alice Tait and journalist Todd Burroughs, the essay refers to internalized racial
BAGHDAD -- When Iraqi deputy prime minister Tariq Aziz described the box that Washington has meticulously constructed for Iraq, he put it this way: "Doomed if you do, doomed if you don't."

It would be difficult to argue the point with Aziz, and I didn't try. Instead, during a Sept. 14 meeting here in Baghdad, I joined with others in a small American delegation who argued that the ominous dynamics of recent weeks might be reversible if -- as a first step -- Iraq agreed to allow unrestricted inspections.

Despite Iraq's breakthrough decision that came two days later to do just that, I'll be leaving Baghdad tonight with a scarcely mitigated sense of gloom. While the news from the Iraqi capital has been positive in recent days, the profuse signs of renewed acquiescence to war among top Democrats on Capitol Hill are all the more repulsive.

Boxed in, the Iraqi government opted to accept arms inspectors as its least bad choice. Gauging the odds of averting war, Iraq chose a long shot -- appreciably better than no chance at all, but bringing its own risks. Several years ago, Washington used UNSCOM inspectors for
AUSTIN, Texas -- (SET ITAL) "What's so interesting is that he's given in at the ideal moment: really early, when it messes us up." -- Kenneth Pollack, an Iraq expert at the Brookings Institute, on Saddam Hussein's agreeing to weapons inspections as quoted in The New York Times. (END ITAL)

Don't you just hate it when the bad guys agree to do what we want them to? If that's not a good reason to go in and take out Saddam, name one.

But our Fearless Leader, not one to be deterred from war merely by getting what he wants, promptly moved the goalposts and issued a new list of demands Iraq must meet, including paying reparations to Kuwait.

If you step back and look at this debate, it just gets stranger and stranger. For one thing, all the evidence is that the administration has already made up its mind and we're going into Iraq this winter. President Bush went to the United Nations and demanded they back him, he's going to Congress to demand they back him, and there it is. This is not a debate, it's Bush in his "You're either with us or against us" mode. It is not a discussion of whether invading Iraq is either necessary or wise.

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