Many pundits say President Bush is sitting pretty, but this year began
with new poll data telling a very different story. A national Harris
survey, completed on Jan. 1 for Time magazine and CNN, found that just 51
percent of respondents said they were “likely” to vote for Bush in
November, compared to 46 percent “unlikely.” When people were asked to
“choose between Howard Dean, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the
Republican,” the margin for Bush was only 51-43, and when the survey
focused on “likely voters” the gap narrowed to 51-46.
While other polls have some different numbers, clearly the race for
the White House could be quite close. But one of the obstacles to
Democratic success is the pretense of having a chance to carry a bunch of
Southern states. Actually, for a Democratic presidential campaign in
2004 -- in terms of money, travel time, rhetoric and espoused ideology --
Dixie is a sinkhole.
In 2000, the Bush-Cheney campaign swept all of the South, albeit with
electoral thievery in Florida.
The percentage margins were double-digit in Alabama, Georgia,